东北三省耕地利用格局变化对粮食全要素生产率的影响

Impacts of changes in cultivated land use patterns on total factor productivity of grain in the three northeastern provinces,China

耕地是粮食生产最基本的要素,当前粮食需求扩大与粮食生产区域性不足矛盾突出,寻求更合理的耕地利用格局来实现粮食全要素生产率的提升具有重要意义。本研究基于土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)遥感监测数据,应用GIS软件提取东北三省2000、2005、2010、2015年耕地利用格局相关数据,同时运用数据包络分析模型估算了2000、2005、2010年和2015年东北三省区域和市域粮食全要素生产率。在耕地利用格局变化分析和粮食全要素生产率测算的基础上,从耕地利用格局变化的角度选取指标构建面板数据模型,定量分析其对粮食全要素生产率的影响。结果表明:东北三省市域粮食全要素生产率4个时期均值分别为0.81、0.78、0.82和0.83,粮食全要素生产率空间分布从最初的相对均匀到局部集聚;耕地转出率和耕地斑块破碎度与粮食全要素生产率呈负相关关系,耕地面积比例、耕地转入率和耕地斑块聚合度与粮食全要素生产率呈正相关关系;东北三省粮食全要素生产率提高主要源于耕地面积增加、林地和未利用地向耕地的转入以及耕地在流域的聚合,粮食全要素生产率的降低主要源于耕地转入减少和建设用地对耕地的嵌入式占用。研究表明,严格规划耕地利用格局、持续开展土地整理、提高耕地聚合度,可在保证耕地有效数量的同时,提高耕地利用格局的集聚性和合理性,促进粮食全要素生产率的提升。

Cultivated land is the most basic element of food production.Currently,there is a prominent contradiction between the expansion of food demand and the regional shortage of food production.It is of great significance to seek a more reasonable pattern of cultivated land utilization to improve the total factor productivity of food.Based on remote sensing monitoring data of land use/land cover change(LUCC),this paper applied GIS software to extract the relevant data of cultivated land use patterns in 2000,2005,2010,and 2015.At the same time,data envelopment analysis model was used to estimate the total factor productivity of grain in three provinces and cities in eastern and northern China in 2000,2005,2010,and 2015.Based on the analysis of the changes in cultivated land use patterns and the measurement of the total factor productivity of grain,a panel data model was constructed using indicators selected from the perspective of changes in cultivated land use patterns to quantitatively analyze their impact on the total factor productivity of grain.The results showed that,first,the four period averages of the total factor productivity of grain in the cities of three northeastern provinces were 0.81,0.78,0.82,and 0.83,respectively.The spatial distribution of the total factor productivity of grain changed from relatively uniform at the beginning to local agglomeration.Second,there was a negative correlation between the cultivated land transfer rate and cultivated land patch fragmentation degree and the total factor productivity of grain,while there was a positive correlation between the cultivated land area ratio,cultivated land transfer rate,and cultivated land patch aggregation degree and the total factor productivity of grain.Third,the increase in the total factor productivity of grain in the three northeastern provinces mainly stemmed from the increase in the area of cultivated land,the transfer of forest land and unused land to cultivated land,and the aggregation of cultivated land in river basins.The decrease in the total factor productivity of grain mainly stemmed from the reduction in the transfer of cultivated land and the occupation of cultivated land by construction land.This research shows that the pattern of arable land use should be strictly planned,land consolidation should continue,and the degree of aggregation of arable land should be improved in order to ensure the effective quantity of arable land,improve the agglomeration and rationality of arable land use patterns,and promote the improvement of the total factor productivity of food.