中国城市空间结构演化特征和路径——基于290个地级及以上城市的实证

Evolution Characteristics and Path of Urban Spatial Structure in China:An Empirical Study of 290 Prefecture-Level and above Cities

基于2001—2019年LandScan全球人口地理栅格数据库,采用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法识别城市市域和主城区,综合考虑次中心人口、面积、距主中心的距离以及城市的尺度效应,从市域和主城区两个层面探讨中国290个地级及以上城市的集聚程度与多中心程度的演化特征。结果表明:2001—2019年中国城市空间结构总体呈现市域、主城区及主城区中心之间三重集聚而市域中心之间分散的演化特征,但不同规模城市呈现出不同的空间结构演化趋势,大部分人口在100万以内的规模较小城市仍处于市域、主城区和主城区中心人口三重集聚阶段,而人口在100万以上的规模较大城市已出现人口空间分布分散化趋势;研究期内中国约2/3城市表现为从较低集聚程度或多中心程度向较高集聚程度和多中心程度演化,尤其是人口规模发生显著跃迁的城市具有强烈的该类型演化倾向;在城市规划和建设实践中,应尊重不同城市人口的空间集聚与分散规律,规模较小城市资源配置应更集中高效,而规模较大城市应考虑多中心化的资源配置模式。

Based on the LandScan global population geo-raster database from 2001 to 2019,the exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)method was used to identify the city regions and main urban areas of 290 prefecture-level and above cities in China.Considering the sub-center population,area,distance from the main center and the scale effect of different cities,the evolution characteristics of agglomeration degree and polycentricity were discussed at two levels of city region and main urban area.The conclusions are as follows.From 2001 to 2019,China′s urban spatial structure generally presents the evolution characteristics of triple agglomeration among city regions,main urban areas and centers of main urban areas and dispersion of city centers,but cities of different scales show different spatial structure evolution trends.Most smaller cities with a population of less than 1 million are still in the stage of triple agglomeration among city regions,main urban areas and centers of main urban areas,while larger cities with a population of more than 1 million have shown a trend of decentralization in population spatial distribution.In the past two decades,about two-thirds of China′s cities have shown an evolution from a lower degree of agglomeration or polycentricity to a higher level,especially in cities with significant population transitions.In the practice of urban planning and construction,different cities should respect the law of population agglomeration and dispersion in space.Smaller cities should be more concentrated and efficient in resource allocation,while larger cities should consider polycentric resource allocation models.