高血压人群年龄及体重指数对癌症发病共同作用的回顾性队列研究

The role of age and body mass index on cancer occurrence in a hypertensive population:a retrospective cohort study

目的在上海市闵行区高血压人群中,探究年龄和体重指数(body mass index,BMI)对癌症发生的共同作用。方法研究对象为2007—2015年进入上海市闵行区电子健康信息系统的未患癌症的212394名高血压患者。将年龄、BMI以平滑函数形式纳入广义加性Cox比例风险模型,用双变量响应模型构建曲面图使结果可视化,全面分析两者对癌症发生的联合效应。结果截至2018年12月31日,累计22141名高血压患者新发癌症。年龄与癌症发生风险整体呈线性趋势,而BMI与癌症发生风险整体呈“U”型,BMI在26 kg/m^(2)左右时癌症发生风险最低。不同BMI下,随着年龄增大,癌症发生风险均增加;不同年龄下,BMI与癌症发生风险的关联不同:青年人群(20~44岁)中BMI与癌症发生风险无明显关联,中老年人群(≥45岁)中BMI与癌症发生风险呈“U”型关联,BMI在26 kg/m^(2)左右时癌症发生风险最低。结论建议高血压人群控制BMI在合理范围内,特别是中老年人群,以减少癌症发生。

Objective To analyze the combined effect of body mass index(BMI)and age with cancer occurrence among a hypertensive population in Minhang District,Shanghai.Methods Participants of this study were 212394 hypertensive patients without cancer in Minhang District,Shanghai,registered in the electronic health information system from 2007 to 2015.Age and BMI were included as smoothing functions in the generalized additive Cox proportional risk model.The bivariate response model was constructed to visualize results using surface plots and to comprehensively analyze the association of BMI and age with the risk of cancer occurrence.Results A total of 22141 participants developed cancer by Dec 31,2018.The association between age and the risk of cancer incidence showed an overall linear trend while the association between BMI and the risk of cancer incidence showed an overall“U”shape.BMI at about 262 kg/m showed the lowest risk of cancer incidence.The risk of cancer occurrence increased with increasing age in people with different BMIs.The associations between BMI and the risk of cancer incidence were different at different age groups:there was no significant association between BMI and the risk of cancer incidence in the young people(20-44 years).While in the middle-aged and older people aged over 45 years,BMI was associated with the risk of cancer incidence in a“U”shape.The lowest risk of cancer incidence was around the BMI of 26 kg/m^(2).Conclusion BMI among the population with hypertension should be controlled in a reasonable range,especially in the middle-aged and older population,to prevent cancer occurrence.