摘要
为分析碳达峰背景下我国电动汽车行驶阶段碳减排潜力,对电动汽车碳排放进行了多情景测算分析。首先,构建PCA-SMA-LSSVM预测模型对我国电动汽车保有量进行有效预测;然后,考虑电动汽车发展、电源及电网结构优化多种情景组合,对未来电动汽车碳排放潜力进行测算分析。最后,基于测算结果提出激发电动汽车碳减排潜力的相关建议。
To analyze the carbon emission reduction potential of electric vehicles(EVs)in the driving phase under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking,the paper employs a multi-scenario approach to evaluate EV carbon emissions.Firstly,a PCASMA-LSSVM model is established to accurately predict EV ownership in China.Then considering diverse scenarios including EV growth,power supply,and power grid structure optimization,the carbon emission potential of EVs in the future is calculated and analyzed.Relevant suggestions for stimulating the carbon emission reduction potential of EVs are proposed based on the calculation results.
作者
于霄宇
纪正森
嵇灵
牛东晓
许晓敏
YU Xiaoyu;JI Zhengsen;JI Ling;NIU Dongxiao;XU Xiaomin(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;College of Economic and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)
出处
《智慧电力》
北大核心
2024年第2期25-31,39,共8页
Smart Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72074013)
中国技术经济学会青年人才托举工程项目(YESS20220084 )。
关键词
电动汽车保有量预测
黏菌算法
最小二乘支持向量机
碳排放测算
EV ownership prediction
slime mould algorithm
least squares support vector machine
carbon emission evaluation
