R&D资本化背景下我国TFP增长率再测算

Re-estimating of China’s TFP Growth Rate in the Light of Progress in the Capitalisation of R&D

研究与试验发展(R&D)资本对经济增长和科技创新作用日益凸显,但对于R&D资本的核算亟待完善。本文基于SNA2008和CSNA2016框架,将R&D支出作为资本形成,对我国各省份物质资本存量和R&D资本存量进行规范化测算,使用随机前沿分析法重新估算1991—2019年间的全要素生产率(TFP)增长率。研究发现:第一,我国R&D资本存量规模呈总体递增和地区聚集趋势;第二,1991—2019年间,我国广义TFP增长率年平均增幅为2.10%,对经济增长存在正向作用;第三,将TFP增长率分解为技术进步、前沿技术效率和规模效应,发现技术进步对TFP增长率的贡献最大,是推动我国TFP增长的主导力量,但却呈现逐年递减的趋势;第四,随着我国对R&D投入的不断增加与重视,R&D对我国广义TFP增长率的贡献呈现递增的趋势,R&D的贡献逐渐成为推动我国科技进步的主要力量。

With the increasingly prominent role of R&D capital in economic growth and technological innovation,the accounting of R&D capital needs to be revised urgently.According to the framework of SNA2008 and CSNA2016,this paper regards the R&D as capital formation,measures the physical capital stock and R&D capital stock in various regions of China,incorporates it into the production function and uses the stochastic frontier analysis method to re-estimate the TFP growth rate from 1991 to 2019.It finds that,firstly the scale of China’s R&D capital stock shows an overall increase and regional agglomeration trend.Secondly,from 1991 to 2019,the average annual growth rate of generalized TFP growth rate is 2.10%,which has a positive effect on economic growth.Thirdly,after decomposing the growth rate of TFP into technological progress,cutting-edge technology efficiency and scale effect,it finds that technological progress contributes the most to the growth rate of TFP and is the leading force in promoting the growth of TFP in China,but it shows a decreasing trend year by year.Fourthly,with China’s increasing input and emphasis on R&D investment,the contribution of R&D to China’s generalized TFP growth rate has shown an increasing trend,and the contribution of R&D has gradually become the main force to promote China’s scientific and technological progress.