基于地理加权回归模型的凉水自然保护区红松空间分布分析

Analysis of Spatial Distribution of Korean Pines in Liangshui NatureReserve Based on the Geographically Weighted Regression Model

依据凉水国家级自然保护区的671块随机样地的标准地调查数据及landsat9遥感影像,分别建立以最小二乘为基础的泊松回归(Poisson)模型、逻辑斯蒂回归(Logistic)模型和高斯回归(Gaussian)模型3种全局模型,以及以地理加权回归模型(GWR)为基础的地理加权泊松(GWPR)模型、地理加权逻辑斯蒂(GWLR)模型和地理加权高斯(GWGR)模型3种局部模型来预测凉水国家级自然保护区的天然红松分布情况。结果显示,对该地区天然红松分布影响最为显著的因子为坡度和海拔;通过对比全局模型和GWR模型的残差空间相关性发现,GWR模型能够产生更为理想的模型残差,模型残差的空间相关性明显小于全局模型,因此,可以使用GWR模型来解决样地间存在的空间异质性问题,有利于提高红松分布的预测精度;全局模型和GWR模型均有不错的拟合效果,但GWR模型的各个评价指标要优于全局模型,拟合结果更好;天然红松在凉水国家级自然保护区的北部分布最多,在中间条状带区域分布最少。研究结果可为大区域森林经营中的天然红松分布估测提供理论依据。

Based on the standard survey data of 671 random plots of Liangshui National Nature Reserve and the landsat9 remote sensing image,three global models of Poisson model,Logistic model and Gaussian model based on least squares were established,and three local models based on the geographically weighted regression model(GWR)were established,including the geograrhically weighted Poisson(GWPR)model,the geograrhically weighted Logistic(GWLR)model and the geograrhically weighted Gaussian(GWGR)model,to predict the distribution of natural Korean pines in Liangshui National Nature Reserve.The results showed that the most significant factors affecting the distribution of natural Korean pines in this area were slope and altitude.By comparing the residual spatial correlation of the global model and the GWR model,it was found that the GWR model can produce more ideal model residuals,and the spatial correlation of the model residuals was significantly smaller than that of the global model.Therefore,the GWR model can be used to solve the problem of spatial heterogeneity between plots,which was conducive to improving the prediction accuracy of the distribution of Korean pines.Both the global model and the GWR model had good fitting effects,but the evaluation indicators of the GWR model were better than the global model,and the fitting results were better.Natural Korean pines was most distributed in the northern part of the Liangshui National Nature Reserve and the least in the middle strip area.This study can provide a theoretical basis for estimating the distribution of natural Korean pines in large-scale forest management.