滨海平原区可能最大洪水计算研究

Research on Calculation of the Possible Maximum Flood in the Coastal Plain Area

平原河网区受城市区域空间交错、河湖蓄滞洪区联通、水利工程密布等因素的影响,瞬时单位线、经验公式等传统方法推及可能最大洪水(PMF)存在很大的局限性。为弥补传统方法在平原河网地区的适用性问题,尝试使用水动力洪水演进模型法,并综合考虑水库溃坝、可能最大降雨(PMP)、海洋风暴潮等不同叠加因素的影响,选取典型区域(江苏省连云港市西陬山地区某厂址附近区域)研究多种组合条件下平原河网区域的洪水演进过程,及在特定区域内产生的可能最大洪水,以期为平原河网地区可能最大洪水位的推求及工程设计提供参考。

Due to the influence of factors such as spatial staggered of urban areas,connection of river and lake flood storage and detention areas,and dense concentration of water conservancy projects,there are limitations for estimation of the possible maximum flood(PMF)with the traditional methods,such as instantaneous unit hydrograph and empirical formula.To remedy the problem of applicability of traditional methods in plain river network area,this paper attempts to use the hydrodynamic flood evolution model.Considering the influence of different superimposed factors such as reservoir dam break,possible maximum rainfall(PMP)and ocean storm surge,typical areas(Xizou Mountain,Lianyungang City)is selected to study the flood evolution process in the plain river network area under various combined conditions and the maximum possible flood generated within a given area.It provides a reference for the deduction of the possible maximum flood level and engineering design in the plain river network area.