基于ARIMA模型的黄土高原河谷城市生态足迹动态模拟及测算——以甘肃省兰州市为例

ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT DYNAMIC MODELLING AND MEASUREMENT OF LOESS PLATEAU VALLEY BASED ON ARIMA MODEL:A CASE STUDY ON LANZHOU CITY

为了从经济发展的角度探究生态足迹动态变化的成因,论文在测算黄土高原河谷城市——甘肃省兰州市2002—2014年人均生态足迹的发展轨迹的基础上,引入ARIMA模型,模拟预测了该市2015—2020年生态足迹变化趋势。研究结果显示:1)2002—2014年,甘肃省兰州市人均生态足迹总体呈现上升态势,数值由2.70 hm^(2)增长至4.25 hm^(2),增幅达到1.57倍;2)从生态足迹增速看,2002—2014年人均生态足迹平均增速达到4.04%,同一时期兰州市地区生产总值平均增速为11.88%,较人均生态足迹增速高出7.84%,表明该地区经济发展的速度高于资源环境消耗的速度;3)2015—2020年甘肃省兰州市人均生态足迹仍然呈现上升态势,预测值分别达到4.48 hm^(2)、4.61 hm^(2)、4.75 hm^(2)、4.89 hm^(2)、5.02 hm^(2)和5.17 hm^(2),甘肃省兰州市生态赤字逐年增大,总生态足迹是城市土地利用总面积的19.59倍,说明经济发展与地区生态需求呈现较强正相关性,环境库兹涅茨曲线“拐点”并未出现,处于不可持续发展状态。基于以上分析结果提出了甘肃省兰州市降低生态足迹的具体路径:1)实施产业结构调整,降低生态赤字,提升经济发展质量和可持续发展能力;2)推动绿色发展,构建生态类型多样、布局合理、功能完善的自然生态系统和城乡一体的生态网络,提高生态环境容量。

To explore the causes of eco-footprint dynamic changes from perspective of economic development,this paper measures the developing path of the per capita ecological footprint from^(2)002 to 2014 in Lanzhou,a loess plateau valley city,uses ARIMA model to forecast its ecological footprint changing trend from^(2)015 to 2020.The per capita ecological footprint is rising from^(2).70 hm^(2)in 2002 to 4.25 hm^(2)in 2014,increase of 1.57 times.And the rising rate of the per capita ecological footprint reaches to 4.04%,7.84%lower than its GDP s growing rate 11.88%,suggesting Lanzhou s economic development speed is higher than speed of resources and environmental consumption.The per capita ecological footprint of Lanzhou from^(2)015 to 2020 still shows a rising trend,forecasted to reach up to 4.48 hm^(2),4.61 hm^(2),4.75 hm^(2),4.89 hm^(2),5.02 hm^(2)and 5.17 hm^(2),with an enlarging ecological deficit.Lanzhou s gross ecological footprint is 19.59 times of the total area of urban land use,indicating a strong correlation between economic growth and ecological demands,indicating the inflection point of Environmental Kuznets curve doesn t take place,implying a unsustainable status.This paper presents a path to decreasing Lanzhou s ecological footprint from adjusting industrial structure,decreasing ecological deficit to promote economic quality and sustainable capacity,advancing green development,and constructing an ecological network of ecological diversity,appropriate layout,full-functional integration of natural ecosystems and rural-urban union to increase eco-environmental capacity.