水资源-能源-粮食-生态系统耦合协调及驱动力分析

Driving Force Analysis of Coupling Coordination of Water⁃Energy⁃Food⁃Ecology System in China

为加深对我国水资源、能源、粮食、生态系统协同演变趋势的认识,构建水资源-能源-粮食-生态多维系统指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型对我国2005—2020年水资源-能源-粮食-生态系统耦合协调度进行评价,并采用多因素归因分析法进行驱动力分析。结果表明:我国水资源-能源-粮食-生态系统耦合协调度从2005年的0.55增长到2020年的0.84,各地区耦合协调度从勉强协调发展水平过渡到中级协调发展水平,各子系统对耦合协调度上升的驱动分别经历了由粮食子系统到生态子系统再到水资源子系统主导的过程;能源子系统的贡献率虽然比较小,但是未来可能是各地区提升水资源-能源-粮食-生态系统多维系统协调发展水平的突破口。

In order to deepen the recognition of the trend of synergistic evolution of water resources,energy,food and ecosystem in China,a water⁃energy⁃food⁃ecology multi⁃dimensional system index system was constructed,and the coupling coordination degree model was applied to evaluate the coupling coordination degree of water resources⁃energy⁃food⁃ecology from 2005 to 2020 in China,and the driving force analysis was conducted by using multi⁃factor attribution analysis.The results show that the coupling degree of water resources⁃energy⁃food⁃ecosystems in China has increased from 0.55 in 2005 to 0.84 in 2020,and the coupling degree of each region has transitioned from a barely coordinated development level to an intermediate coordinated development level,and the driving force for the increase of the coupling degree of the each subsystem has gone through the process of being dominated by food subsystem,ecological subsystem and the water resources subsystem;al⁃though the contribution of the energy subsystem is relatively smaller,it may be a breakthrough for the regions to improve the coordinated de⁃velopment level of the multidimensional system of water resources⁃energy⁃food⁃ecosystem in the future.