采用异步指纹图联合上界预测法对地下矿坑涌水进行溯源及预测

Traceability and prediction of underground mine pit water surge based on asynchronous fingerprint and upper bound prediction

地下矿坑水来源复杂,难于准确溯源及预测,易造成安全事故。为了对矿坑涌水准确溯源和水量预测,根据矿坑涌水来源不同时与大气降水之间的关系差异,在指纹图法中考虑异步因素首创出异步指纹图法。利用异步指纹图法对大气降水与矿坑涌水之间的影响时间滞后特性进行对比分析,以对矿坑涌水进行准确溯源;又根据矿坑涌水的前期波动特征,提取出其上界数据,利用上界包络预测对矿坑涌水的最大涌水量进行了分析预测。经某铝土矿山实例分析,异步指纹图法确定矿山矿坑涌水来源于大气降水,大气降水5天后影响矿坑涌水;上界包络预测矿山矿坑最大涌水量为10218 m3/d。据此对矿山设计了针对性的截流排水措施后,突水事故数减少了68%,水害经济损失减少了91%。说明异步指纹图联合上界包络预测能够准确地溯源和预测矿坑涌水。

The underground mine pit water source is complex,which makes it difficult to accurately trace and predict the source.It is easy to cause safety accidents.In order to accurately trace the source of mine pit water surge and predict the water surge volume,according to the difference of the relationship between the different sources of mine water surge and atmospheric precipitation,the asynchronous fingerprint method is initiated considering asynchronous factors in fingerprint analysis.The asynchronous fingerprint method is used to compare and analyze the time lag characteristics of the impact between atmospheric precipitation and mine pit water surge,so as to accurately trace the source of mine pit water surge;According to the fluctuation characteristics of the mine pit water surge in the early stages,the upper bound data is extracted,and the maximum water inflow of the mine pit water surge is analyzed and predicted using the upper bound envelope prediction.Through case analysis of a certain bauxite mine,the asynchronous fingerprint method determines that the mine it water surge comes from atmospheric precipitation,which affects the mine pit water surge 5 days later;The maximum water inflow of the mine pit predicted by the upper bound envelope is 10218 m^(3)/d.According to this,the number of water inrush accidents has been reduced by 68%and the economic loss of water disaster has been reduced by 91%after the targeted closure and drainage measures have been designed for the mine.It shows that the asynchronous fingerprint combined with the upper bound envelope prediction can accurately trace and predict the mine pit water surges.