政府债务预算硬约束与地方财政可持续性提升

Hard constraint of debt budget and improvement of local fiscal sustainability

地方政府债务风险的不断积累已成为地方财政可持续性的最大阻碍。以新《预算法》实施后,地方政府债务管理的“开前门”和“关后门”两个阶段改革为准自然实验,分析了政府债务预算硬约束对地方财政可持续性的影响。研究发现:地方政府债务管理的两阶段改革都对地方财政可持续性具有显著的正向提升影响;从作用机制来看,“开前门”和“关后门”阶段改革分别通过财政收支巩固和债务规模控制来发挥对地方财政可持续性的有效作用;异质性分析来看,地方政府举债行为激励较弱和财政监管力度较高的地方,政府债务预算硬约束对地方财政可持续性的正向效应会更加显著。研究结果为推进债务预算硬约束来防范地方政府债务风险和提升地方财政可持续性提供了政策启示。

The accumulation of local government debt risk has become the biggest obstacle to local fiscal sustainability.This paper analyzes the effects of the hard budget constraint on local government debt on local fiscal sustainability by using the double difference method in a quasi-natural experiment with two stages of reform: “opening the front door” and“closing the back door” of local government debt management after the implementation of the new Budget Law. The study finds that: first, both phases of the reform have a significant positive impact on local fiscal sustainability. Second,the mechanism of action analysis reveals that the “opening the front door” and “closing the back door” phases of reform play an effective role in local fiscal sustainability through fiscal consolidation and debt size control. Finally, the positive effect of debt budget constraint on local fiscal sustainability is more pronounced in places with weaker incentives for local governments to raise debt and higher fiscal supervision. The findings provide policy recommendations for promoting debt budget constraint and preventing and resolving local government debt risks to enhance local fiscal sustainability.