日本“新安保三文件”下的强军计划论析

Analysis on Japan’s Military Buildup Plan around the New Three Security Documents

随着岸田政府在2022年12月出台“新安保三文件”,日本的军力建设迎来重大转变。日本打破了国防预算“GDP 1%”原则以及“专守防卫”原则,试图大幅提升国防预算并全面强化军力,以期成为“能战”的军事强国。“新安保三文件”的出台动因有多方面,包括日本对周边国家“威胁认知”的偏差,日本配合美国的军事战略、加强日美安全合作的需要,以及日本国内更加重视国家安全问题。在发展前景上,日本强军计划并非完全乐观,其国防预算增长计划有可能无法得到全面落实、“和平主义”思潮以及“募兵难”问题也会对日本的“军事大国化”起到一定程度的制约作用。

As the Kishida Administration introduced the New Three Security Documents in December 2022,Japan’s military buildup has been experiencing a significant transformation.Japan violated the 1%GDP cap on defense budget and the Exclusively Defense-Oriented Policy.Japan has been attempting to dramatic⁃ally raise its defense budget and comprehensively enhance its military capabilities to become a military pow⁃er that is“capable of fighting”.There are several reasons for the introduction of the New Three Security Doc⁃uments,including Japan’s biased“threat perception”towards its neighboring countries,the need to coop⁃erate with the military strategy of the United States and enhance Japan-U.S.security cooperation,and the increasing concern for national defense issues within Japan.However,the prospect of Japan’s military buildup plan remains uncertain.This can be seen from the facts that the growth plan for the defense budget may not be fully implemented and the pacifism ideology and the challenges in recruitment hinder Japan from becoming a major military power to a certain degree.