基于行人恐慌情绪解析的改进社会力模型

Improved social force model based on analysis of pedestrian panic emotion

为深入研究行人恐慌情绪对突发事件下群体疏散效率的影响特性,首先,考虑滞留时间、局部密度、行人与出口的距离、周围人员密度以及行人恐慌情绪传播等因素,解析并构建由自恐慌和恐慌传播2部分组成的行人恐慌情绪量化模型,并将其引入社会力模型中进行改进优化;然后,采用与经典现象对比的方法验证模型的有效性;最后,运用Anylogic软件进行仿真分析。结果表明:改进后的模型能够较好地反映行人在恐慌情形下的疏散运动特性;适度的恐慌情绪,如当恐慌度小于0.3时,可以加快人群的疏散速度;较高的恐慌情绪,如当恐慌值大于0.3时,则会加剧瓶颈现象,出现所谓的“快即是慢”现象,从而降低疏散效率。

In order to deeply analyze the influence of pedestrian panic on the efficiency of group evacuation under emergencies,this paper analyzed and constructed a quantitative model of pedestrian panic,which was composed of two parts:self-panic and panic propagation.First,the model considered factors such as detention time,local density,the distance between pedestrians and exits,the density of people around and the spread of pedestrian panic.Then it was introduced into the social force model for improvement and optimization,and verified the validity by comparing with the classical phenomenon.Finally,the simulation analysis was carried out using Anylogic software.The results show that the improved model can better reflect the evacuation movement characteristics of pedestrians in panic situations.A moderate panic,such as when the panic degree is less than 0.3,can accelerate the evacuation speed of the crowd.A high panic,such as when the panic value is greater than 0.3,can exacerbate the bottleneck phenomenon,and the so-called"fast is slow"phenomenon occurs,thus reducing the evacuation efficiency.