基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的新疆南疆耕地生态承载力分析

Analysis of ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land in Southern Xinjiang based on DPSIR-TOPSIS model

新疆南疆地区生态环境脆弱,探究其耕地生态承载力状况与障碍因子,可为区域高质量发展和生态文明建设提供决策依据。从耕地可持续化发展角度,利用DPSIR模型构建综合评价指标体系,采用改进的TOPSIS法、障碍度模型对2007—2020年新疆南疆耕地生态承载力进行了水平测度与障碍因子诊断研究。结果表明,新疆南疆耕地生态承载力整体水平不高,呈“N”型波动性变化趋势,各子系统变化情况不一。各地州耕地生态承载力差异明显,大多处于承载较差区和承载低级区;耕地绿化率、人均水资源量、土地垦殖率是影响新疆南疆耕地生态承载力水平提升的主要障碍因子。未来应加大生态环境治理力度、提高水资源利用率、合理化耕地开发布局,以提升新疆南疆耕地生态承载力。

The ecological environment in the Southern Xinjiang region is fragile,and exploring the ecological carrying capacity and obstacle factors of its arable land can provide a decision-making basis for high-quality regional development and ecological civilization construction.From the perspective of sustainable development,a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed based on the DPSIR model,and the improved TOPSIS method and an obstacle model were used to measure the level of ecological carrying capacity of arable land in Southern Xinjiang from 2007 to 2020 and diagnose the obstacle factors.The results show that the overall level of ecological carrying capacity of arable land in Southern Xinjiang is not high and shows a fluctuating"N"type change trend,with different changes in each subsystem.The ecological carrying capacity of arable land varies markedly from state to state,mostly in the poor carrying capacity zone and the low carrying capacity zone.The rate of returning farmland to forest,the amount of water resources per capita and the rate of land reclamation are the main obstacle factors affecting the improvement of the ecological carrying capacity level of arable land in Southern Xinjiang.In the future,efforts should be made to increase ecological management,improve the utilization of water resources and rationalize the layout of arable land development in order to enhance the ecological carrying capacity of arable land in Southern Xinjiang.