东北地区土地覆被格局变化模拟:基于CLUE-S和Markov-CA模型的对比分析

Simulation of land cover pattern change in Northeast China:A comparative analysis based on CLUE-S and Markov-CA models

研究以遥感解译的东北地区2000年、2010年、2015年的土地覆被变化为基础,充分考虑自然和社会因素对土地覆被变化的影响,分别通过CLUE-S模型和Markov-CA模型对东北地区2015年和2030年土地覆被格局进行模拟,研究结果表明:通过与遥感解译的2015年实际土地覆被类型数据对比验证,CLUE-S模型和Markov-CA模型模拟结果的总体Kappa指数分别为0.9700和0.9649,结果表明2种模型的模拟结果较为理想,CLUE-S模型的模拟精度较Markov-CA模型更高。2015—2030年东北地区草地、耕地、湿地、其他用地和水体面积呈现下降趋势,林地、人工表面面积呈现增加趋势,人地关系越发紧张。东北地区作为生态环境相对脆弱的区域需警惕不可持续的土地覆被变化,需权衡生态保护、粮食增加与基础设施建设的用地需求和协调发展。

Northeast China is the ecological barrier of north China and the ballast stone of national food security.Simulation of future land cover pattern has important guiding significance for sustainable management of regional land resources.The CLUE-S model and Markov-CA model have been proved to have unique advantages in spatio-temporal predicting in previous studies.Based on the land cover change in Northeast China from 2000,2010,2015 interpreted by remote sensing,this study fully considers the impact of natural and social factors on land cover change,and uses CLUE-S model and Markov-CA model to simulate the land cover pattern in northeast China in 2015 and 2030 respectively.The results show that:Compared with the actual land cover type data interpreted by remote sensing in 2015,the overall Kappa indices of CLUE-S model and Markov-CA model are 0.9700 and 0.9649,respectively.The results show that the simulation results of the two models are relatively ideal.The simulation accuracy of CLUE-S model is higher than that of Markov-CA model.From 2015 to 2030,the area of grassland,cultivated land,wetland,other land and water showed a decreasing trend in Northeast China,while the area of forest land and artificial surface showed an increasing trend,and man-land relationship became increasingly tense.Northeast China,as a region with relatively fragile ecological environment,should be vigilant against unsustainable land cover change,and should balance the land demand of ecological protection,grain increase and infrastructure construction and coordinate development.This study can provide scientific basis and data support for the formulation of relevant policies such as territorial space planning in Northeast China.