1971-2020年河源市高温热浪变化特征分析

Change Characteristics of High Temperature and Heat Wave in Heyuan City from 1971 to 2020

基于河源市5个国家气象观测站1971—2020年日最高气温数据,采用统计学、Mann-Kendall(M-K)突变检验、小波分析等方法分析了河源市各地高温的气候变化特征。结果表明:1971—2020年河源市高温热浪频次、持续时间和强度总体呈现增加趋势,空间上呈东多西少趋势,高温日数平均增加速率为0.46 d/a,每年平均出现107.7 d高温日和21.02次高温热浪事件,高温日和高温热浪事件主要出现在6—9月,高峰期在7—8月;龙川县高温天气出现频繁且持续时间较长,是河源市最热的地方,龙川县的高温日数年际变化存在较强的波动性,在1971—1988年和1999—2007年期间有两个上升期,用M-K检验和滑动t检验方法,龙川县高温存在两个突变点;用小波分析法分析得出河源市各地高温热浪周期性并不显著,只有和平县2006—2018年2~6年的周期,以及紫金县1994—2016年准2年、准5年的周期和1982—2006年准12年的周期通过显著性检验。

Based on daily maximum temperature data from five national meteorological observatories in Heyuan City from 1971 to 2020,statistical analysis,Mann-kendall(M-K)sudden change test and wavelet analysis were used to analyze the change characteristics of high temperature climate in Heyuan City.The results showed that the frequency,duration and intensity of high temperature and heat wave in Heyuan City from 1971 to 2020 showed an overall increasing trend,with a spatial distribution trend of more in the east and less in the west.The average increase rate of high temperature days was 0.46 d/a,with an average of 107.7 d/a of high temperature and 21.02 times/a of high temperature and heat wave events.High temperature days and high temperature and heat wave events mainly occurred from June to September,and the peak period was from July to August.The high temperature weather in Longchuan County occurred frequently and lasted for a long time,making it the hottest place in Heyuan City.The interannual variation of high temperature days in Longchuan County had strong volatility,with two rising periods during 1971-1988 and 1999-2007.Using M-K test and sliding t-test methods,we found two sudden change points of the high temperature in Longchuan County.Wavelet analysis showed that the periodicity of high temperature and heat wave in Heyuan City was not significant,only Heping County′s 2-6-year cycle in 2006-2018 and Zijin County′s quasi-2-year cycle and quasi-5-year cycle in 1994-2016 and quasi-12-year cycle in 1982-2006 passed the significance test.