产能中断下汽车供应链牛鞭效应的系统动力学仿真

System Dynamics Simulation of Bullwhip Effect in Automotive Supply Chain under Capacity Disruption

在突发事件的影响下,市场供给不确定性逐渐增加,供应链中出现产能中断与信息不对称等问题,导致供应链出现牛鞭效应。因此,基于系统动力学对汽车供应链进行仿真分析,设计存量流量图,分析订单完成情况与各节点库存量变化,并对影响供应链牛鞭效应的变量进行因果分析。结果表明,安全库存量的增加和转运时间的减少可以有效减少由中断引起的库存量激增现象,同时提高供应链绩效。

Under the influence of emergencies,the uncertainty of market supply gradually increases,and the problems of capacity disruption and information asymmetry appear in the supply chain,leading to the bullwhip effect.Therefore,the automobile supply chain is simulated based on system dynamics,inventory flow chart is designed to analyze order fulfillment and inventory changes at each node,and causal analysis is conducted on variables that affect the supply chain and cause bullwhip effect.The results show that the increase of safety stock and the reduction of transit time can effectively reduce the inventory surge caused by disruption and improve the supply chain performance.