2000—2020年中国城乡食物消费碳-水足迹及其驱动因素分析

Analysis of the carbon-water footprint of food consumption and its driving effect in urban and rural areas of China from 2000 to 2020

随着经济发展与城镇化快速推进,中国居民膳食模式发生显著转变,并产生了严重的资源环境后果。为识别城乡居民食物消费碳-水足迹的关键驱动因素,缓解水资源消耗,助力双碳目标实现,该研究测算并对比分析了中国31(30)省市2000—2020年城乡居民人均食物消费碳-水足迹,通过对数平均迪式指数算法(logarithmic mean index method,LMDI)对碳-水足迹进行了驱动因素分解。结果显示:2000—2020年中国城镇人均食物消费碳足迹(水足迹)增加了29.63%(32.94%),农村碳足迹(水足迹)增加了4.59%(7.91%)。从空间演变来看,城镇人均食物消费碳-水足迹较高的地区由沿海省份逐渐扩散至内陆,而农村呈南北高-中间低的分布格局。从驱动因素来看,经济水平是城乡居民食物消费碳-水足迹增加的主要动因,且消费水平表现为抑制作用;人口城镇化驱动城镇居民食物消费碳-水足迹增加,而在农村起到抑制作用。该研究从促进食物消费结构转型,多渠道拓宽食物来源等方面提出建议,旨在促进中国城乡居民食物可持续消费。

With the rapid advancement of economic development and urbanization,the dietary patterns of Chinese residents have undergone significant transformations,which has produced serious environmental consequences.To identify the key drivers of the carbon-water footprint of food consumption of urban and rural residents,to mitigate water depletion and to contribute to the realization of the dual-carbon goal,this paper calculated the carbon and water footprint of per capita food consumption of urban in 31 provinces and rural residents in 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020,compared these differences between urban and rural residents,and decomposed the driving factors of carbon footprint and water footprint by the Logarithmic Mean Index Method(LMDI).The results showed that:1)From 2000 to 2020 years,the per capita carbon footprint of food consumption in urban China increased by 29.63%and water footprint increased by 32.94%,and carbon footprint and water footprint in rural China increased by 4.59%,and 7.91%respectively.The consumption of animal-based foods has increased and the structure of food consumption is gradually shifting towards animal-based foods.2)From the perspective of spatial evolution,the areas with high carbon footprint and water footprint of urban per capita food consumption gradually spread from coastal provinces to inland areas,while rural areas showed a distribution pattern,that is the north and south are high and the middle is low.The change value from 2000 to 2020 of carbon footprint and water footprint in rural areas of provinces such as Qinghai,Guizhou,Hubei,Hunan,and Jiangxi are much lower than that in urban areas,which is the main reason for the spatial distribution of rural areas.3)The driving factors include food consumption structure,the economic level(disposable income per capita),the consumption level,the population urbanization,the population size,and the food quantity that can be purchased per unit of food consumption expenditure.Specifically,the economic level is the main driver for the increase of the carbon footprint and water footprint of food consumption of urban and rural residents,and the consumption level is the opposite,which reduced the increment of carbon footprint and water footprint;the food consumption structure has driven the increase of the carbon footprint and water footprint of rural residents'food consumption in various provinces,partially for urban areas,which showed that urban areas have changed in the direction of reducing carbon and water footprints.Population urbanization has driven urban residents’carbon footprint and water footprint,while playing a restraining role in rural areas,mainly due to the migration of the population to urban areas.Similarly,the population size has driven the increase of carbon and water footprint of food consumption,while the provinces such as Gansu,Jilin,and Heilongjiang are inhibiting effects,mainly because of the population emigration and difficulty in returning floating population.Food quantity that can be purchased per unit of food consumption expenditure has played a restraining role in the demand theory that with the price increase,the demand could be reduced.Finally,this paper put forward suggestions from the perspectives of improving dietary structure developing sustainable dietary guidelines for Chinese residents,and reducing economic disparities between different provinces,aiming to promote sustainable food consumption among urban and rural residents in China.