加入WTO以来中美经贸关系演变下的大豆贸易研究

Study on Soybean Trade under the Evolution of Sino-US Relations since WTO Accession

中美大豆贸易是中美经贸的重要组成部分。自中国加入WTO以来,中美大豆贸易深受中美经贸关系变动影响。中美经贸关系常态化下,中美大豆贸易依存度较高,中国市场对美国大豆出口的重要性和稳定性不断加强。中美经贸摩擦期间,双边大豆贸易对中美经贸摩擦紧张程度作出即时反应,一定程度上重塑了世界大豆贸易格局,但中美经贸摩擦并没有改变中美大豆贸易紧密关系。中美经贸关系止跌企稳后,新兴大豆生产国短期内仍无法撼动美国对中国进口大豆贸易的重要地位。长期来看,巴西、阿根廷与美国出口大豆将互补式满足中国大豆需求。据此,中国应维护好与美国、新兴大豆生产国的关系,减少地缘政治风险与基建落户对大豆贸易的影响;积极拓展与“一带一路”沿线国和自贸区国家的伙伴关系,鼓励具有国际经验的大中型企业“走出去”;完善大豆产业政策,引导和调动国内农民大豆种植积极性,增强国内大豆生产能力。

Sino-US Soybean trade is an important part of Sino-US economy and trade.Since joining the WTO,Sino-US soybean trade has been closely related to changes in Sino-US relations.Under the normalization of Sino-US economic and trade relations,Sino-US soybean trade interdependence is high,the importance and stability of the Chinese market for US soybean exports is growing.During the Sino-US economic and trade friction,bilateral soybean trade provides immediate response to Sino-US economic and trade friction tensions.To a certain extent,it has reshaped the world soybean trade pattern,but the Sino-US economic and trade friction has not changed the close relationship between Sino-US soybean trade.The Sino-US economic and trade relations enter a phase of stopping the decline and stabilizing,emerging soybean-producing countries is still unable to shake the US to China’s important position in the short term.In the long run,Brazil,Argentina and the US export soybeans will complement each other to meet China’s soybean demand.Accordingly,China should maintain good relations with the US and emerging soybean-producing countries and reduce the impact of geopolitical risks and infrastructure settlements on soybean trade;expand partnerships with countries along the“Belt and Road”and FTA countries,and encourage large and medium-sized enterprises with international experience to“go global”;improve the soybean industrial policy,guide and mobilize domestic farmers’enthusiasm for soybean cultivation,and enhance domestic soybean production capacity.