基于组合赋权的压裂作业人因失误概率研究

Study on the Probability of Human Error in Fracturing Operation Based on Combined Weighting

压裂作业强度大,环境恶劣,长时间枯燥的作业容易诱发人因失误,造成事故,分析压裂现场人因可靠性对于提升压裂作业的安全和效率具有重要意义。在考虑压裂现场情境因素影响基础上,提出了一种组合赋权模糊人因可靠性分析方法,用以评估压裂现场人因失误概率。首先,通过对压裂现场的调研分析,结合压裂作业情境环境特点,基于认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM)建立了适用于评估压裂作业的一级共同绩效条件CPC 8个,二级CPC因子评估指标36个。其次,根据实际工况中各CPC对人的绩效可靠性的影响程度不同,提出以差异系数法确定线性组合系数,基于序关系法与熵权法对各项评估指标进行主客观线性组合赋权。最后,利用本文方法分析四川某页岩气压裂作业现场人因失误概率,结果表明,较一般模糊CREAM方法,在不同情境环境下,随着情境环境水平的下降,组合赋权模糊CREAM方法对CPC评价数据敏感度更高,人因失误概率增加,并且变化速率加快,这与现场实际工况一致,为压裂现场的人因可靠性分析和人因失误概率量化结果优化提供了参考。

Fracturing operations are prone to accidents caused by human errors due to their high intensity and harsh operating environment.Analyzing the human reliability of fracturing sites is of great significance for improving the safety and efficiency of fracturing operations.Taking into consideration the influence of situational factors on the fracturing site,the combined weighting fuzzy CREAM method is proposed for human reliability analysis.The common performance conditions and CPC evaluation indicators for evaluating the human reliability of fracturing operations are established according to the environmental characteristics of fracturing operation scenarios.It contains 8 first-level common performance conditions and 36 second-level CPC evaluation indicators.Then,according to the impact of each CPC on the reliability of human performance,the variation coefficient method is used to determine the linear combination coefficient.The objective and subjective linear combination weighting of each CPC is carried out using the G1 and the entropy weight method.Finally,the method proposed in this paper is used to analyze the human reliability of a shale gas fracturing site in Sichuan.The results show that compared with the general fuzzy CREAM method,the combined weighted fuzzy CREAM method is more sensitive to the CPC evaluation data and the error probability is more accurate when at a low context level.With the reduction of the context level,the human error probability increases and the rate of change of the error probability accelerates,which is consistent with the actual working conditions on-site.The research results provide a reference for the analysis of human reliability and the quantification result optimization of human error probability at the fracturing site.