基于层次分析法的赤泥堆场安全评价研究

Study on safety evaluation of red mud yard based on analytic hierarchy process

赤泥堆场的安全性不仅影响运营期的生产,而且还威胁下游生命财产安全,但是目前赤泥堆场安全评价研究较少。为改善上述问题,本文研究了多因素变化对赤泥堆场安全的影响,构建了赤泥堆场安全评价模型。首先,基于层次分析法结合可拓理论,分析了各评价指标对赤泥堆场的影响程度。根据不同的赤泥特性,从坝体安全、库区防洪安全及人为因素三方面确定了9个评价指标的状况值,利用多级评价原理建立安全评价层次体系;随后,量化各指标并确定指标权重及等级综合关联度,实现赤泥堆场安全等级评估。利用该方法对山西某赤泥库进行了安全等级评价,得出等级为3级,属于一般安全状态。通过与现场检测结果对比,证明该模型可以有效评估赤泥堆场安全性。

The safety of red mud yard not only affects the production during operation,but also threatens the safety of downstream life and property.However,there are few studies on the safety evaluation of red mud yard.In order to better address the above problem,this paper studies the impact of multi-factor changes on the safety of the red mud yard,and a safety evaluation model for the red mud yard is established.Firstly,based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and extension theory,the influence degree of each evaluation index on the red mud yard is analyzed.According to the different characteristics of red mud,the state values of 9 evaluation indexes are determined from three aspects:dam body safety,reservoir flood control safety and human factor,and the multi-level evaluation principle is used to establish the safety evaluation hierarchy system.Then,each index is quantified,while its weight and grade comprehensive correlation degree are determined,so as to realize the safety grade evaluation of red mud yard.This method is used to evaluate the safety grade of a red mud yard in Shanxi province,and the safety level is 3,which belongs to the general safety state.After comparing with the field test results,it proves that the model can effectively evaluate the safety of the red mud yard.