海洋蓝碳与海洋经济高质量发展耦合协调研究

A Study on the Coupling and Coordination of Ocean Blue Carbon and High-quality Development of the Marine Economy

为实现海洋强国战略和绿色低碳高质量发展目标,基于2010—2020年中国11个沿海省份数据,核算海洋碳汇经济价值,利用熵值法测度海洋经济高质量发展水平,采用耦合协调度模型研究海洋蓝碳与海洋经济高质量发展的耦合协调度时空演化,运用障碍度模型诊断内部障碍因子,使用固定效应模型分析外部影响因素。研究发现,中国沿海省份海洋蓝碳与海洋经济高质量发展耦合协调度整体上渐趋优化,受2015年股市危机与2020年新冠疫情等系统性风险的影响,各沿海省份两大系统的耦合协调度均有不同程度的下降。内部障碍因子诊断表明,国际标准集装箱吞吐量与海岸线经济密度是影响海洋经济高质量发展的主要因素。外部影响因素分析表明,劳动生产率、强制型环境规制与海洋科技创新能显著提高两大系统的耦合协调度,市场型环境规制起到正向影响作用但未显著。

In order to achieve the strategy of a maritime power and the goal of green low carbon and high-quality development,this paper assesses the economic value of ocean carbon sinks based on panel data from 11 coastal provinces in China from 2010 to 2020,measures the level of high-quality development of the marine economy by the entropy method,and studies the spatial and temporal evolution of the coupled coordination degree of ocean blue carbon and high-quality development of the marine economy by the coupled coordination degree model.The internal obstacles are diagnosed using the obstacle degree model,and the external influencing factors are analyzed by the fixed effect model.The study finds that the overall coupling degree of blue carbon and high-quality development of the marine economy in China's coastal provinces is gradually optimized,but due to the impact of systemic risks such as the stock market crisis in 2015 and the COVID-19 in 2020,the coupling degree of the two systems in each province has declined to varying degrees.The diagnosis of internal obstacle factors shows that international standard container throughput and coastline economic density are the main factors hindering the high-quality development of the marine economy.The analysis of external influencing factors shows that labour productivity,mandatory environmental regulation and marine science and technology innovation can significantly improve the coupling degree of the two systems,while market-based environmental regulation plays a positive but not significant role.