基于Markov模型的胰高血糖素样肽1受体激动剂联合二甲双胍治疗2型糖尿病药物经济学评价

Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist combined with metformin in the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus

目的 对胰高血糖素样肽1受体激动剂(GLP-1RA)联合二甲双胍治疗2型糖尿病(T2DM)进行经济学评价。方法 从我国卫生体系角度出发,基于7项GLP-1RA联合二甲双胍治疗T2DM的随机对照试验(RCT),构建二甲双胍单药或联合GLP-1RA治疗T2DM的Markov模型,模拟治疗期间T2DM无并发症、T2DM伴并发症以及死亡3种状态的动态变化。模型以质量调整生命年(QALYs)为健康产出指标、以3倍我国2023年人均国内生产总值(GDP)为意愿支付(WTP)阈值。模型循环周期设定为1年,共计模拟20年,采用Markov模型进行队列模拟,以增量成本-效用比(ICUR)为评价指标,从而获得每种治疗策略的长期成本、效用及其经济性。通过对成本、效用及贴现的敏感性分析,检验研究结果的稳定性。结果 与二甲双胍单药治疗相比,5种GLP-1RA类药物(利拉鲁肽、度拉糖肽、艾塞那肽、聚乙二醇洛塞那肽、司美格鲁肽)联合二甲双胍治疗方案的ICUR均小于3倍我国2023年人均GDP,增加的成本可接受。敏感性分析中各参数在设定的范围内变化,或将模拟时间延长至30年或50年,对研究结论无显著影响;概率敏感性分析结果表明,WTP阈值为3倍我国2023年人均GDP值(268 074元)时,二甲双胍联合司美格鲁肽0.5 mg方案具有成本-效用优势的概率最高,约为99.7%。结论 对于T2DM患者,相比于二甲双胍单药治疗,利拉鲁肽、度拉糖肽、艾塞那肽、聚乙二醇洛塞那肽、司美格鲁肽以说明书推荐剂量联合二甲双胍治疗方案均属于优势方案,具有经济性。

Objective To evaluate the economic value of using glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist(GLP-1RA) in combination with metformin for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM).Methods Based on 7 randomized controlled clinical trials(RCTs),Markov model was built to simulate the dynamic changes of metformin alone or combined with GLP-1RA in the treatment of T2DM patients without or with complications and death from the perspective of China's health system.Quality-adjusted life years(QALYs) was used as a health output indicator and 3 times China's per capita gross domestic product(GDP) in 2023 was set as the willingness-to-pay(WTP) threshold.The cycle was at the rate of 1 year and a total of 20 years cohort simulation in Markov model was applied to obtain long-term cost and effect of each treatment strategy.The incremental cost-utility ratio(ICUR) was analyzed as the primary evaluation indicator and the sensitivity of cost,utility and discount was performed to test the stability of the results.Results Compared with metformin alone,the ICUR of GLP-1RA including liraglutide,dulaglutide,exenatide,loxenatide,semaglutide combined with metformin were all below the WTP threshold,and the increased cost was acceptable.Extending the simulation time to 30 years or 50 years had no effect on results.The results of probability sensitivity analysis showed that the cost effect of semaglutide 0.5 mg combined with metformin had the highest probability of a cost-utility advantage of 99.7% among all the treatment strategies when WTP threshold was 3 times China's per capita GDP in 2023(268 074yuan).Conclusion GLP-1RA,including liraglutide,dulaglutide,exenatide,lixisenatide,and semaglutide,at the regular recommended dose combined with metformin,would present higher cost-utility compared to metformin monotherapy.