“双碳”“双区”背景下电力需求预测方法研究实践

Research Practice on Electrical Power Demand Prediction Methods in the Context of "Dual Carbon" and "Dual Zone"

为全面、准确分析新时期发展背景下城市未来用电特征,要结合新形势、新特点,考虑多种新要素,在以往所用方式、方法的基础上进行优化、调整,建立适合“双碳”“双区”发展目标的电力需求预测新体系。该文首先对“双碳”“双区”对城市电力需求预测影响进行分析,并提出碳强度约束下电能占终端能源比重法、细分产业法和新型负荷修正法3种电力需求预测方法,综合预测分析全社会用电量,了解城市中长期电力需求的具体特征,掌握用电总量趋势、用电结构趋势和最高负荷及负荷特性趋势,为城市发展规划顶层设计、控制电力负荷和提高电力投资效益提供参考。

In order to comprehensively and accurately analyze the characteristics of urban future power consumption in the context of development in the new era,it is necessary to combine the new situation and new characteristics,consider a variety of new elements,and optimize and adjust on the basis of the previous methods and methods,so as to establish a new electrical power demand prediction system suitable for the development goal of double carbon and double zones.This paper first analyzes the influence of double carbon and double zones on urban electrical power demand prediction,and puts forward three methods of electrical power demand prediction:the proportion of electric energy to terminal energy under the constraint of carbon intensity,the subdivided industry method,and the new load correction method.This paper makes a comprehensive forecast and analysis of social electricity consumption,proposes to understand the specific characteristics of urban medium-and long-term electrical power demand,and grasp the trend of total electricity consumption,power consumption structure,maximum load and load characteristics.This provides a reference for the top-level design of urban development planning,controlling power load and improving the efficiency of power investment.