长江典型船舶社会风险可接受衡准研究

Study on societal risk acceptance criteria of typical ships in Yangtze River

为降低各类事故造成的灾难性后果,利用频率-死亡人数(F-N)曲线的方法,开展长江典型船舶社会风险可接受衡准研究。基于我国长江水域散货船实际运营基础数据,对船舶营运经济价值(EV)、风险厌恶系数、单次事故最大死亡人数等决定可接受衡准中尽实际可能低(ALARP)区域边界设定的关键参数,进行敏感性分析;建立一般社会风险可接受衡准,并考虑到社会公众对较大死亡人数的风险厌恶,提出改进的可接受衡准;结合长江散货船2010—2019年的历史事故资料,通过数据分析和频率计算,获得散货船碰撞、搁浅、触碰、触礁、自沉、火灾/爆炸及风灾等造成的社会风险,并利用建立的可接受衡准对散货船进行风险评价。结果表明:风险厌恶系数是决定可接受衡准是否足够严苛的最关键参数;改进衡准ALARP上边界横轴截距对应的死亡人数是一般衡准的9.55%,改进衡准ALARP下边界横轴截距对应的死亡人数是一般衡准的44.44%,改进的衡准更严苛,且对较大数目的人员死亡有更强烈的厌恶性。

In order to mitigate the catastrophic consequences resulting from various accidents,F-N curve method was employed to conduct research on societal risk acceptance criteria for typical ships in the Yangtze River.Combined with the actual data of the bulk carriers on Yangtze River,the sensitivity analysis of the key parameters that determine the region boundary of ALARP was carried out,including EV,the risk aversion factor and the upper limit of the fatalities in one accident.For the bulk carriers,the general societal risk acceptance criterion was established.Considering the society's risk aversion to a large number of deaths,an improved acceptance criterion was proposed.Furthermore,the historical accident data of bulk carriers in the Yangtze River from 2010 to 2019 were collected.Through data analysis and frequency calculation,the societal risk of the bulk carriers caused by collision,grounding,contact,stranding,sinking,fire/explosion and wind disaster were determined,and risk assessment was conducted using the acceptance criteria established in this paper.It is shown that the risk aversion factor is the most crucial parameter to determine whether the criterion is strict enough.The number of fatalities corresponding to the horizontal intercept of the upper boundary line of ALARP region for the improved criterion is 9.55%of that of the general criterion,while considering the horizontal intercept of the lower boundary line of ALARP region,the percentage is 44.44%,which means that the improved criterion is more stringent and exhibits stronger aversion to a larger number of deaths.