基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

Research on influencing factors of subway station fire evacuation based on 24Model-D-ISM

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

In order to prevent fire accidents in subway stations and deeply understand the internal relations and hierarchical structure among the influencing factors of fire evacuation in subway stations,63 fire evacuation accidents in subway stations were analyzed based on the sixth edition of 24Model,and the interaction among various factors was fully considered,and 19 key factors affecting fire evacuation in subway stations were extracted to establish an index system of influencing factors of fire evacuation in subway stations.C-OWA was used to improve DEMATEL to determine the important influencing factors of fire evacuation in subway stations.On this basis,ISM was used to analyze the hierarchical structure and interaction path of various factors,and a multi-level hierarchical structure model of the influencing factors of subway station fire evacuation was constructed.Research results show that evacuation guidance,panic herd behavior and crowded people are the key influencing factors for the evacuation of people in subway station fires.The evacuation of fire personnel in the subway station is influenced by surface factors,intermediate factors and deep factors.Among them,evacuation education and training,facilities maintenance and inspection,evacuation plan and other factors are the root causes.Paying attention to the improvement of root causes was conducive to preventing and controlling accidents in essence.