海岛水产养殖业台风灾害脆弱性分析:以舟山和温州海岛地区为例

Vulnerability Analysis of Aquaculture to Typhoon Disasters in Island Regions:Evidence from the Zhoushan and Wenzhou Islands

基于浙江舟山和温州海岛地区获取的344份水产养殖家庭问卷调查数据和各利益相关者的访谈数据,使用混合数据的因子分析(FAMD)和主成分的层次聚类分析(HCPC),辨识海岛水产养殖家庭台风灾害脆弱性类型,揭示各脆弱性类型的特征,识别家庭脆弱性类型的判别指标,分析台风灾害及其他压力源对海岛渔业生态系统和水产养殖家庭经济脆弱性的影响。研究发现:1)海岛地区水产养殖业和水产养殖家庭呈现高经济脆弱性,大部分虾蟹贝混养类、藻类和贻贝类养殖家庭台风灾害损失严重。2)水产养殖家庭在暴露度、敏感性和适应能力方面的差异,导致家庭呈现3种不同的脆弱性类型及特征。3)家庭劳动力的不足、多次遭受台风灾害损失、基础设施不能充分满足需求是水产养殖家庭呈现台风灾害脆弱性的共同影响因素;风险暴露、养殖品种、家庭年均收入、户主年龄、教育程度、社会支持、采用适应策略的数量及成本-收益情况这些显著判别指标间的差异是形成不同脆弱性类型的关键。4)气候、生态环境、经济和市场、社会、制度和政策等方面的多重压力源相互作用产生累积效应,加剧了海岛地区渔业生态系统的脆弱性和家庭的社会经济脆弱性。

Islands are sensitive zones of sea-land interaction and typical ecologically fragile areas that are highly vulnerable to natural disasters,especially marine aquaculture,which is sensitive and at high risk to typhoon disasters;additionally,they are home to aquaculture households with high economic vulnerability to typhoons and poor adaptive capacity.This study focused on Liuheng Town of Zhoushan and the Dongtou District of Wenzhou,which were severely affected by Super Typhoon Lekima,and Gouqi Town of Zhoushan,which was severely affected by Typhoon In-Fa and Super Typhoon Chanthu,as case areas.Based on data acquired from 344 questionnaire surveys of aquaculture households and interview data from various related bodies,this study used factor analysis of mixed data and hierarchical clustering on principal components to identify the types of vulnerability of island aquaculture households to typhoon disasters and reveal the characteristics of each vulnerability type,as well as to identify the discriminative indicators of household vulnerability types,for analyzing the impact of typhoon disasters and other stressors on the vulnerability of island aquaculture households to typhoons.The results showed that the aquaculture industry and aquaculture households in the island areas showed high economic vulnerability,with most shrimp,crab,and shellfish mixed farming,algae,and mussel farming households suffering serious losses from typhoons.Second,differences in exposure,sensitivity,and adaptive capacity led to three different types and characteristics of vulnerability in aquaculture households.The degree of household exposure varied across aquaculture species,with mussels having the highest,algae the next highest,and shrimp,crab,and shellfish the lowest.Island aquaculture households showed outstanding sensitivity,as reflected in their high dependence on aquaculture,significant household human capital problems,relatively limited support from social networks,and frequent exposure to typhoon disasters.The adaptive capacity of households varied across aquaculture species,with mussel households having superior adaptive capacity,and shrimp,crab,and shellfish households and algal aquaculture households having relatively poor adaptive capacity.Third,the common influencing factors of aquaculture households'vulnerability to typhoon disasters are labor shortages,frequent typhoon disasters,and inadequate infrastructure.The differences among the significant discriminant indicators,such as the degree of exposure,aquaculture species,average annual household income,age and education level of the household head,social support,number and type of adaptation strategies adopted,and cost–benefit situation,are key to the formation of different vulnerability types.Finally,multiple stressors from the climate,ecosystem,economy and markets,society,institutions,and policies mutually interact to exert cumulative effects that increase the vulnerability of fishery ecosystems and the socioeconomic vulnerability of households in island regions.This study provides important empirical evidence for governments,aquaculture households,and other relevant stakeholders in island regions to reduce their vulnerability and increase their adaptive capacity.