摘要
为了提升模式预报效果,文章利用四川盆地南部20182020年59月的EC模式降水预报资料和实况降水资料,采用频率匹配的方法对EC模式的24 h累计降水进行订正、分析和检验。结果表明当降水阈值小于25.0 mm时,EC模式定量降水预报存在明显湿偏差,反之存在弱干偏差。研究结果为提升相关区域的降水预报能力提供支持。
In order to improve the prediction effect of the model,this paper uses the EC model precipitation forecast data and the actual precipitation data from May to September 2018 to 2020 in the southern Sichuan Basin,and uses frequency matching method to correct,analyze and test the 24 hour cumulative precipitation of the EC model.The results show that when the precipitation threshold is less than 25.0 mm,there is obvious wet deviation in EC quantitative precipitation forecast.On the contrary,there is weak dry deviation.The results of this study provide support for improving the precipitation forecast ability of related regions.
作者
周威
魏庆
杨康权
陈茂强
Zhou Wei;Wei Qing;Yang Kangquan;Chen Maoqiang(Sichuan Provincial Meteorology Observatory,Chengdu 610072;Sichuan Lightning Protection Center,Chengdu 610072;Neijiang Meteorology Bureau,Neijiang 641000;Heavy Rain and Drought Flood Disaster in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072)
出处
《气象水文海洋仪器》
2024年第3期22-25,共4页
Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments
基金
四川省自然科学基金(2023NSFS0242)
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目青年专项(SCQXKJQN202109,SCQXKJQN202227)资助。
关键词
EC模式
降水
频率匹配
偏差订正
EC model
precipitation
frequency matching
deviation correction
