计及短期运行特征的水风光互补中长期调度

Long-medium term hydro-wind-PV complementary operation considering short-term characteristics

传统基于旬/月尺度的中长期调度模型难以描述风、光出力随机波动性所诱发的运行风险,无法有效指导水风光互补系统的中长期运行。为此,提出计及短期运行特征的水风光互补中长期调度规则编制方法。首先,构建短期调度模型评估水风光联合运行中的弃电、弃水及失负荷风险;其次,基于短期调度长系列调度样本,提取水电出力与弃电、弃水及失负荷之间的响应关系;最后,将响应关系嵌套在水风光互补隐随机优化调度模型中提取调度函数。以黄河上游千万千瓦级水风光互补系统为研究对象进行验证,结果表明:相比于简化运行策略,所提出的方法能够增加系统发电量6.5%,同时降低失负荷率3.71%。在水风光互补中长期调度模型中嵌套短期运行风险能够降低系统的弃电与失负荷风险,从而有效指导互补系统中长期调度运行。

Traditional long-medium term operation models based on ten-day/month scales are difficult to describe the operational risk induced by the fluctuations of wind and PV output,and cannot effectively guide the long-term operation of hydro-wind-PV complementary systems.To this end,a method for deriving long-medium term hydro-wind-PV complementary systems operating rules while considering short-term operational characteristics was proposed.First,a short-term operation model was established to estimate possible power curtailment,abandoned water,and lost load in the hydro-wind-PV complementary operation.Then,based on the long series of short-term operation samples,the response relationships between hydropower output and power curtailment,abandoned water,lost load were extracted.Finally,these response relationships were nested in implicit stochastic optimization dispatching model to extract operating rules.A clean energy base in the upper Yellow River basin was selected as a case study.The results indicated that compared with the simplified operation strategy,the energy increased by 6.5%,and the lost load rate decreased by 3.71%through implicit stochastic optimization.Nesting the short-term operational risks in long-term hydro-wind-PV complementary dispatching model can reduce power curtailment and lost load risk,thus effectively guiding the long-term scheduling operation of complementary systems.