适应造就国际制度的复杂性——基于复杂适应系统理论的分析

Adaptation Creates Complexity:A Perspective on International Institutions

国际制度复杂性的成因是制度复杂性研究的一个重点领域。国际制度体系是典型的复杂适应系统,通过分析可以发现,国际制度体系中行为体的适应造就了制度复杂性。适应作为国际制度复杂性形成的解释变量,根据不同的“刺激—反应”类型可分为压力回应型适应、竞争驱动型适应、合作促发型适应与发展导向型适应四种适应模式。无论哪种类型的适应都将导致国际制度复杂性的产生。本文选取压力回应型适应下金融危机的冲击与G20的成立与演变,竞争驱动型适应下制度竞争与亚太地区制度的重叠与嵌套,合作促发型适应下G20合作治理模式与机制复杂体的形成,以及发展导向型适应下“一带一路”框架下的制度涌现与发展四个案例,系统追踪各种国际制度生成与发展的过程,以揭示国际制度复杂性的形成逻辑,验证本文的研究假设。基于复杂适应系统理论所构建的国际制度复杂性的分析框架具有良好的解释力,有助于更好地理解国际制度体系的本质属性及塑造因素,为国际制度研究提供了新视角。

The cause of the complexity of international institutions is a key area of institutional complexity research.The international institutional system is a typical complex adaptive system.Based on the core idea of complex adaptive system theory that“adaptation breeds complexity,”we can discover the causal mechanism of the formation of international institutional complexity,and put forward a research hypothesis:In the international institutional system,the adaptation of international agents creates the complexity of the international institutions.Adaptation as the explanatory variable in the formation of the complexity of the international system can be divided into four“adaptation modes”according to different types of“stimulus-response,”namely,pressure-responsive adaptation,competition-driven adaptation,cooperation-driven adaptation,and development-oriented adaptation.Any type of adaptation will lead to the emergence of complexity in international institutions.This study selects four cases,namely,the impact of the financial crisis and the establishment and evolution of the G20 under the pressure-responsive adaptation,the institutional competition and the overlap and nesting of institutions in Asia-Pacific region under the competition-driven adaptation,the G20 cooperative governance model and the formation of mechanism complex under the cooperation-driven adaptation,and the emergence and development of institutions under the framework of“the Belt and Road Initiative”under the development-oriented adaptation,to systematically analyze the process of the formation and development of various international institutions,explain the formation logic of the complexity of international institutions,and verify the research hypothesis.The analytical framework of the complexity of the international institutions based on complex adaptive system theory is quite explanatory,which is helpful to better understand the essential attributes and shaping factors of the international institutional system,and also provides a new perspective for strengthening the study of international politics.