城市空间结构对空气质量的影响研究——基于GTWR模型

Research on the Influence of Urban Spatial Structure on Air Quality Based on the GTWR Model

城市空间结构对空气质量有重要影响,但很少有研究从时空维度探讨其影响关系。论文基于2015—2020年WorldPop中国人口数据集,运用社会网络法从多中心度和集聚度识别城市空间结构,同时利用GTWR模型探讨其对空气质量的时空影响。研究结果表明:城市空间结构对空气质量改善起重要作用,其影响在不同城市中表现出明显的时空变化。整体来看,多中心度对AQI的影响在研究期由正转负,集聚度与AQI一直呈负相关。从异质性特征看,多中心城市空间结构对中东部城市AQI的抑制作用逐渐增强,对西部城市的促进作用逐渐减弱。城市空间结构集聚度对AQI的负向效应呈下降趋势,正向效应呈上升趋势。控制变量中,产业结构、人口密度、道路密度和人均GDP与AQI呈正相关关系,平均风速和平均气温与AQI呈负相关关系。因此,从多中心度和集聚度来看,建议政府根据各市具体发展水平及未来发展规划,布局城市空间结构,改善城市空气质量。

Urban spatial structure impacts air quality,but few studies have explored its influence relationship from the spatial and temporal dimensions.Based on the WorldPop Chinese dataset from 2015 to 2020,this paper uses the social network method to identify urban spatial structure from polycentric degree and agglomeration,and uses the GTWR model to explore its temporal and spatial impact on air quality.The results show that urban spatial structure plays an important role in air quality improvement,and its influence shows obvious temporal and spatial changes in different cities.Overall,the influence of polycentricity on AQI changed from positive to negative during the study period,and the degree of agglomeration was negatively correlated with AQI.From the perspective of heterogeneity,the inhibition effect of polycentric urban spatial structure on AQI in central and eastern cities gradually increased,and the promotion effect on western cities gradually weakened.The negative effect of urban spatial structure agglomeration on AQI showed a downward trend,and the positive effect showed an upward trend.Among the control variables,industrial structure,population density,road density,and per capita GDP were positively correlated with AQI,while average wind speed and average temperature were negatively correlated with AQI.Therefore,from the perspective of multi-centricity and agglomeration,it is recommended that the government lay out the urban spatial structure and improve urban air quality according to the specific development level and future development plan of each city.