GaR视角下海洋产业结构升级、科技创新与海洋经济高质量发展

Marine Industrial Structure Upgrading,Technological Innovation and the High-Quality Development of the Marine Economy from GaR Perspective

海洋产业结构升级是实现海洋经济高质量发展的关键,其能否促进海洋经济增长是海洋产业结构高质量转型的着力点。文章从在险增长视角,以我国沿海11个省(自治区、直辖市)为样本,通过构建面板分位数回归模型,研究海洋产业结构升级对GOP分布的影响,着重分析海洋经济下行风险和上升潜力的变化趋势。实证结果显示:海洋产业结构升级与短、中、长期海洋经济增长正相关,显著促进海洋经济高质量发展,且不同经济增长水平下,该促进作用具有异质性。而科技创新能够正向调节海洋产业结构升级与海洋经济增长的关系,助力海洋产业结构升级,降低中、短期海洋经济下行风险,并提高中、长期海洋经济上升潜力,发挥出海洋产业升级对海洋GaR的正向促进作用。因此,有关部门应完善海洋科技创新体系,加快推进海洋产业结构升级,对海洋经济高质量发展具有重要的意义。

The marine industrial structure upgrading is the key to achieving high-quality development of the marine economy,and its ability to promote the growth of the marine economy is the focus point of the high-quality transformation of the marine industry structure.From the perspective of growth at-risk,the paper takes 11 coastal provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) in China as samples and studies the impact of marine industrial structure upgrading on the distribution of GOP by constructing a panel quantile regression model,focusing on the changing trends of downside risks and upside potential of the marine economy.The empirical results show that,overall,the upgrading of marine industry structure has a positive contribution to the distribution of marine economic growth in the short,medium and long term,but there are differences at different quartiles,which can significantly improve the upside potential of the marine economy.Science and technology innovation can positively regulate the relationship between the two,helping the upgrading of the marine industry structure to reduce the downside risk of the marine economy in the short and medium term and increase the upside potential of the marine economy in the medium and long term,bringing into play the positive promotion effect of the upgrading of the marine industry on the marine GaR.Therefore,the relevant departments should improve the marine science and technology innovation system and accelerate the upgrading of the marine industry structure,which is of great significance to the high-quality development of the ocean.