江西省用电量的时空演变特征及影响因素分析

Temporal and spatial variation characteristics and influencing factors of power consumption

为方便电能供应者提前规划和优化供电配置,采用空间自相关Moran指数和经济计量方法对江西省用电量的空间相关性及其驱动因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,各市用电量存在明显空间差异,高值和低值相互环绕。通过对最大信息系数筛选出的驱动因素进行定量分析,发现除出生率外,发电量、GDP、人口总数、劳动力和工业用电量对用电量的增加具有正向促进作用,工业用电量和GDP是决定电力消费的关键因素。

To facilitate pre-planning and optimal allocation for electricity suppliers,an empirical analysis of the spatial correlation of electricity consumption and its driving factors in Jiangxi Province was carried out using spatial autocorrelation Moran index and econometric methods.The results of the study show that there are obvious spatial differences in power consumption among cities,and the high and low values of power consumption surround each other.By quantitatively analyzing the driving factors screened by the maximum information coefficient,we found that,except for the birth rate,power generation,GDP,total population,labor force and industrial power consumption have positively contributed to the increase of power consumption,and industrial electricity consumption and GDP are the key factors determining electricity consumption.