2005—2022年上海市青浦区肺结核时空特征分析

Analysis of Spatio-temporal Characterisation of Tuberculosis in Qingpu District of Shanghai from 2005 to 2022

目的:通过分析上海市青浦区2005—2022年的肺结核疫情,旨在发现区域内肺结核发病的空间聚集性及时空特征,为相关部门制定防控策略提供参考依据。方法:从中国疾病预防控制信息系统中筛选2005年1月1日—2022年12月31日上海市青浦区肺结核登记报告资料,进行空间全局自相关分析、空间局部自相关分析和时空扫描分析。结果:2005—2022年上海市青浦区男性肺结核患者数量多于女性患者,20~39岁年龄段肺结核患者数量最多。从时间上看,2013—2015年青浦区各街(镇)的发病率普遍上升,大部分街(镇)在此期间达到历年发病峰值,2015年之后各街(镇)的发病率呈逐步下降趋势。从空间上看,青浦区东部和西部地区整体发病率高于中心地区。2011年、2013年、2016年、2017年、2020年青浦区肺结核发病在空间上存在显著正相关性,呈现明显的空间集聚趋势,2010年青浦区肺结核发病的空间分布呈现负相关性。2005—2022年青浦区各街(镇)肺结核患者年均登记率的空间分布不均衡。2015—2022年青浦区肺结核患者呈现出明显的时空聚集特征。结论:2005—2022年青浦区肺结核病例男性显著多于女性,肺结核患者主要集中在20~39岁年龄段人群,且呈现时空聚集性,高发病率区域主要集中在青浦区西南部地区。相关部门应针对高发病区域和高风险人群加强筛查,制定分类分时的防控措施,从而有效防控肺结核疫情。

OBJECTIVE To analyze the tuberculosis(TB)epidemic in Qingpu District of Shanghai from 2005 to 2022,which aims to discover the spatial aggregation and spatial and temporal characteristics of tuberculosis incidence in the region,so as to provide a reference basis for the effective development of prevention and control strategies.METHODS Tuberculosis registration report data of Qingpu District of Shanghai from January 1st,2005,to December 31st,2022,were screened from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System,and spatial global autocorrelation,spatial local autocorrelation,and spatio-temporal scanning analyses were carried out.RESULTS The number of male TB patients in Qingpu District of Shanghai was higher than the number of female patients from 2005 to 2022,and the number of TB patients in the age group of 20~39 years was the highest.In terms of time,the incidence of all streets(towns)in Qingpu District generally increased from 2013 to 2015,and most of the streets(towns)reached the peak incidence in previous years during the period,and the incidence of all streets(towns)showed a gradual decline trend after 2015.In terms of space,the overall incidence of Qingpu District east(town)and west street(town)was higher than the central street(town).There was a significant positive correlation in the spatial incidence of TB in 2011,2013,2016,2017,and 2020,which presented an obvious spatial clustering trend.While in 2010,the spatial incidence of TB presented a negative correlation.The average annual registration rate of TB patients in the streets(towns)of Qingpu District from 2005 to 2022 showed an uneven spatial distribution.The patients with TB from 2015 to 2022 showed obvious spatio-temporal clustering features.CONCLUSION There were significantly more male than female tuberculosis cases in Qingpu District from 2005 to 2022,and tuberculosis patients were mainly concentrated in the age group of 20~39 years old,and showed spatial and temporal aggregation,with high incidence areas mainly concentrated in the western part of Qingpu District.The relevant departments should strengthen screening for high incidence areas and high-risk groups,and formulate categorized and time-phased prevention and control measures,so as to effectively prevent and control tuberculosis epidemics.