数字人民币接受与使用的影响因素和组态路径探索

Exploring the Influencing Factors and Configuration Paths of the Acceptance and Use of E-CNY

在数字人民币试点工作全面推进的背景下,明确影响公众接受与使用数字人民币的因素有利于数字人民币的深入推广与普及。基于整合型技术接受与使用统一理论(UTAUT2)模型、创新扩散理论和感知风险理论构建数字人民币接受与使用的影响因素研究模型,通过问卷调查法获取1976份数据,以结构方程模型(SEM)验证假设及变量的净效应,并采用模糊集定性比较分析方法(fsQCA)研究诱发数字人民币高频与低频使用行为的组态路径。SEM研究结果表明:绩效期望、努力期望、社会影响、便利条件、个体创新性正向影响接受意愿,感知风险负向影响接受意愿,便利条件、习惯、接受意愿正向影响使用行为;接受意愿在绩效期望、努力期望、社会影响、感知风险对使用行为的影响中发挥显著中介作用。fsQCA研究结果显示:条件外驱模式、体验侧重模式、内因主导模式、综合作用模式、个性影响模式、安全倾向模式可实现数字人民币高频使用;环境缺失模式、风险阻碍模式会导致数字人民币低频使用。基于此,提出从推进应用场景开发与生态建设、增强用户黏性、培育公民数字素养、提升使用体验与效用、加强安全保障与立法监管、贯彻宣传工作等方面促进数字人民币应用。

In recent years, with the rapid development of digital technology, many countries around the world have devoted themselves to the wave of the discovery of central bank digital currencies (CBDC). China has also seized the opportunity to research and develop E-CNY and actively carried out pilot work across the country. However, there are still some realistic problems such as the scale of the E-CNY pilot is not wide enough and users are not easy to develop the habit of using E-CNY. In this context, it is meaningful to analyze the influencing factors and action paths of the acceptance and use of E-CNY from the perspective of comprehensive system characteristics for promoting the wide use of users and deepening the pilot work of E-CNY.Based on UTAUT2 model, innovation diffusion theory and perceived risk theory, this paper constructs a research model of influencing factors for the acceptance and use of E-CNY, and obtains 1,976 data through questionnaire survey. First, the structural equation (SEM) is used to verify the net effect of assumptions and variables, measure performance expectations, effort expectations, social impact, convenience conditions, individual innovation positive impact acceptance willingness, perception of risk negative impact acceptance willingness, convenience conditions, habits, acceptance willingness to positively affect the use behavior;acceptance willingness plays a significant mediating role in the effects of performance expectation, effort expectation, social influence and perceived risk on use behavior. Then, the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis method (fsQCA) is used to study the configuration paths that induce the high-frequency and low-frequency use behavior of E-CNY. The results show that the conditional external drive mode, experience focus mode, internal dominant mode, comprehensive action mode, personality impact mode and security tendency mode can realize the high-frequency use of E-CNY;environment missing mode and risk obstruction mode will lead to the low-frequency use of E-CNY.Compared with previous literature, this paper expands in the following three aspects: first, it adopts the method of SEM and fsQCA to study the influencing factors and configuration paths of the acceptance and use of E-CNY for the first time. Second, the influencing factors of acceptance willingness and use behavior of E-CNY as well as their mutual relationship are studied simultaneously. Third, the number of effective research data and cases reached 1976, which is a large sample in the analysis and research combined with SEM and fsQCA, having reference significance.The research of this paper lays a theoretical foundation for currently accelerating the promotion and application of E-CNY, and puts forward effective paths to promote the acceptance and use of E-CNY from the aspects of boosting the development of application scenarios and ecological construction, enhancing user stickiness, cultivating citizens’ digital literacy, lifting user experience and utility, strengthening security and legislative supervision, and implementing publicity.