企业社保减负的就业结构优化与居民消费提振效应

The Effects of Reducing Enterprise Social Security Burdens on Improving Employment Structure and Stimulating Household Consumption

针对企业的社保减负政策能为促进居民消费带来积极影响。企业社保缴费负担下降使正规部门劳动需求增长,引发就业结构的调整,增加了正规部门就业比重,由此带来工资和家庭养老金财富的增长及收入风险的下降,进而促进消费。本文构建了一个扩展的两部门生命周期模型,刻画了上述经济机制。基于2019年《降低社会保险费率综合方案》的改革背景,本文量化分析了社保缴费基数下调对城镇家庭消费支出与消费不平等的影响。研究发现,此次调整导致了城镇居民生命周期消费提升4.43%。低收入家庭单纯从预算约束下降中获得的消费提升非常有限。基于模型的进一步测算表明,相较于下调社保缴费基数,取消社保缴费基数下限对城镇居民消费的提升作用更明显,能使家庭消费增加7.52%,并且使生命周期消费不平等下降5.3%。本文的研究揭示了降低企业社保缴费负担的正外部性,表明该政策不仅有利于在生产端给企业减负,还可以提振消费和降低消费不平等,对扩大内需有积极作用。

This article demonstrates that reducing the social security burden on enterprises can have a positive impact on promoting consumer spending. The economic mechanism behind this is that a decrease in social security contribution by enterprises leads to increased demand for formal-sector labor, resulting in adjustments in the employment structure and an increased proportion of formal sector employment.This leads to increased wages, wealth from family pensions, and decreased income risks, and ultimately promotes consumption. The article constructs an extended two-sector life-cycle model to depict the aforementioned economic mechanism. Based on the background of the 2019 "Comprehensive Plan to Reduce Social Security Contribution Rates", the article quantifies the impact of lowering the social security payment base on urban household consumption expenditure and consumption inequality. The study finds that this adjustment has resulted in a 4.43%increase in urban residents' life-cycle consumption, primarily driven by the aforementioned employment structure adjustments. However, lowincome households benefit only marginally from the reduced liquidity constraints. Further calculations based on the model indicate that compared to reducing the social security contribution base, eliminating the lower limit of the social security contribution base has a more significant effect on increasing urban household consumption, leading to an approximately 7.52% increase in family consumption and a 5.3% decrease in life-cycle consumption inequality. This research reveals the positive externality of reducing the burden of social security contribution for enterprises, highlighting that this policy not only benefits enterprises in terms of production, but also stimulates consumption, reduces consumption inequality, and plays a positive role in expanding domestic demand.