基于非齐次泊松过程的高压断路器剩余电寿命预测及可靠性分析

Residual Electrical Lifetime Prediction and Reliability Analysis of High-voltage Circuit Breakers Based on Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process

高压断路器可保护电力设备和电网免受过电流和短路的损害,其正常运行对于特高压线路来说至关重要。从高压断路器相对电寿命曲线入手,分情况建立了断路器电触头可靠性数学模型,基于非齐次泊松过程对可靠性模型进行仿真验证,获取了更加符合实际退化过程的可靠性模型,实现了断路器剩余电寿命及可靠性值的定量预测,为断路器运行状态评估、故障诊断及检修策略制定提供了借鉴和参考。

High-voltage circuit breakers play a crucial role in protecting power equipment and power grids from overcurrent and short-circuit damage,especially for extra-high-voltage lines.This paper establishes a mathematical model for the reliability of circuit breaker electrical contacts in various scenarios,starting from the relative electrical lifetime curve of high-voltage circuit breakers.The reliability model is then simulated and verified using the nonhomogeneous Poisson process to get better alignment with the actual degradation process.The results of this study enable quantitative prediction of residual electrical lifetime and reliability of circuit breakers,and provide valuable insights for operational state assessment,fault diagnosis and overhaul strategy formulation with respect to high-voltage circuit breakers.