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区域地质灾害易发性评价的证据权法原理与实践 被引量:2

Principle and application of the weight-of-evidence method in regional landslide susceptibility assessment
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摘要 在阐述证据权法概念与原理的基础上,以西北黄土高原滑坡、崩塌地质灾害高易发的兰州市区为评价区,详解基于证据权法的区域地质灾害易发性评价的技术流程,利用GIS工具,开展评价指标选取与相关性分析、证据因子权重与后验概率分析、评价模型检验、易发程度评价。分析结果显示,坡度、坡向、地层岩性、断层、绿化灌溉、土地利用类型等地质灾害影响因素之间呈无相关或弱相关性,符合相互独立的要求,组成的模型ROC曲线(接受者操作特征曲线)AUC值(曲线下面积)为0.85,具有较高的预测精度。理论与实践表明,与其他统计学方法相比,证据权法同时考虑了评价指标中存在地质灾害与不存在地质灾害2种情况,避免了当地质灾害不存在时权重偏大导致结果失真的问题。证据权法结果为地质灾害发生的绝对概率,可以作为不同区域、地区的地质灾害易发程度对比的依据。 Based on elaboration of the concept and principle of WoE,Lanzhou urban area,which is highly prone to slides and falls in the Loess Plateau of Northwest China,is taken as example to detail technical process of regional geological hazards susceptibility assessment based on the WoE.GIS tools are used to carry out evaluation index selection and correlation analysis,weight and posterior probability analysis of evidence factors,assessment model verification,and susceptibility degree classification and assessment.The analysis results show that there is no correlation or weak correlation between the factors affecting geological hazards such as slope,slope direction,stratum lithology,faults,waterfalls,green irrigation and land use type,which meets the requirements of mutual independence.AUC(Area Under Curve)of the ROC curve(Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve)of the model is 0.85,which means high prediction accuracy.Theoretical analysis and empirical application have demonstrated that,in comparison with other statistical methods,the WoE takes into account both probability of the presence and absence of geological hazard within the evaluation factors.Thereby,it prevents distortion caused by overestimation of weights when geological hazards are absence.The result of the WoE is the absolute probability of the occurrence of geological hazards,which can serve as a basis for comparing the susceptibility of geological hazards from different areas.
作者 冯振 陈亮 王立朝 侯圣山 田怡帆 刘明学 FENG Zhen;CHEN Liang;WANG Lichao;HOU Shengshan;TIAN Yifan;LIU Mingxue(Institute of Geo-environmental Monitoring,Beijing 100081,China)
出处 《地质通报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第7期1255-1265,共11页 Geological Bulletin of China
基金 中国地质调查局项目《重点地区地质灾害风险调查与评价》(编号:DD20221748)、《洮河流域中游灾害地质调查》(编号:DD20190645) 贵州电科院科技项目《山区电网地质灾害危险性快速与动态评价技术研究》(编号:0002200000089405)。
关键词 地质灾害 易发性评价 证据权 后验概率 ROC曲线 兰州 geological hazards susceptibility assessment weight of evidence posteriori probability ROC curve Lanzhou urban area
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