基于中断时间序列分析评估河南省新冠病毒感染疫情防控对手足口病流行趋势的影响

Impact of novel corona-virus infection pandemic prevention and control on the prevalence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Henan Province based on interrupted time series analysis

目的:使用中断时间序列分析方法评估河南省新冠病毒感染疫情防控对手足口病流行趋势的影响。方法:从河南省卫生健康委员会法定报告传染病系统中收集2013年1月至2022年9月手足口病发病数据。用河南省2013年1月至2019年6月手足口病发病数据构建ARIMA预测模型,用2019年7月至2019年12月数据验证模型的预测效果。以该模型预测的2020年1月至2022年9月(疫情防控期间)手足口病发病数据为预测值,同期报告数据为真实值,采用阶跃变化、脉冲变化两种评价方法,分析疫情防控对手足口病发病的影响。结果:ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12模型的MA1=0.43(t=3.14,P<0.001),SMA1=-0.62(t=6.94,P<0.001);根据AIC、AICC和BIC最小,LL最大,确定其为最优模型。该模型的预测值与真实值的平均相对误差为10.20%。疫情防控期间估计的手足口病发病数阶跃变化为-3471(95%CI为-11794~4852)例,估计的脉冲变化为每月9210(95%CI为3153~15268)例。结论:新冠病毒感染疫情防控降低了河南省手足口病发病水平。

Aim:To evaluate the impact of novel corona-virus infection pandemic prevention and control on the prevalence of hand-foot-mouth disease(HMFD)using interruption time series analysis.Methods:Data of the incidence of HMFD from January 2013 to September 2022 from the statutory infectious disease reporting system of Henan Provincial Health Commission were collected.The data from January 2013 to June 2019 were used to construct the ARIMA prediction model;the data from July 2019 to December 2019 were used to verify the predictive performance of the model.Based on the predicted data from January 2020 to September 2022(the pandemic)and the reported data during the same period,2 evaluation methods(step change and pulse change)were used to analyze the impact of the pandemic on the incidence of HMFD.ResuIts:ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model was the optimal model,MA1 was 0.43(t=3.14,P<0.001)and SMA1 was-0.62(t=6.94,P<0.001),AIC,AICC and BIC were the smallest,and LL was the largest.The mean absolute percent error between the predicted value based the model and the true value was 10.20%.The estimated step change was-3471(95%CI was-11794-4852),and the estimated pulse change was 9210(95%CI was 3153-15268)per month.ConcIusion:The incidence of HFMD in Henan Province showed a decreasing trend under the intervention of novel corona-virus infection pandemic.