基于IAHP-EWM博弈论的煤层底板突水影响因素研究

Study on influencing factors of water outburst from coal seam floor based on IAHP-EWM game theory

为了研究影响底板突水的水文地质和管理因素,利用文献调研法确立了6个一级指标和20个二级指标的层次分析模型;收集8例突水事故指标数据,根据事故发生经过和事故原因分析,采用1~9标度体现人员管理因素指标对事故发生概率和后果的影响程度;利用区间层次分析法(IAHP)和熵权法(EWM)对所收集数据进行分析,利用博弈论对所确立指标进行组合赋权。研究结果表明,水文地质因素方面隔水层厚度和含水层水压权重最高,在管理因素方面地质基础资料不足是影响突水的关键因素,通过与其他类似研究对比,指标权重计算排序结果具有一定合理性,为研究底板突水提供方法参考,为煤层底板突水的精确防治和管理提供借鉴。

In order to study the hydrogeology and management factors affecting floor water outburst,the analytic hierarchy model of 6 first-level indicators and 20 second-level indicators was established by literature research method.The index data of 8 water outburst accidents were collected.According to the analysis of the accident process and the cause of the accident,the 1 ~ 9 scale was used to reflect the influence degree of personnel management factor index on the probability and consequence of the accident.The interval analytic hierarchy process( IAHP) and entropy weight method( EWM) were used to analyze the collected data,and the game theory was used to combine the established indicators.The results showed that the thickness of aquiclude and the water pressure of aquifer had the highest weight in hydrogeological factors.The lack of geological basic data in management factors was the key factor affecting water outburst.Compared with other similar studies,the ranking results of index weight calculation had certain rationality,which provided a reference for the study of floor water outburst and provided a reference for the accurate prevention and control of water outburst from coal seam floor.