人口老龄化、财政支出效率与产业结构升级——理论机制与经验证据

Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Evidence of Population Aging,Fiscal Expenditure Efficiency and Industrial Structure Upgrading

本文在分析人口老龄化、财政支出效率与产业结构升级三者内在机理的基础上,利用2001—2019年我国省级面板数据并结合面板平滑转换模型和动态空间杜宾模型,对提出的理论假说进行实证检验。研究发现,财政支出效率、产业结构升级在时间、空间和时空三个维度均具有显著的路径依赖性、空间外溢性和竞争滞后性特征。人口老龄化对财政支出效率和产业结构升级均具有显著的非线性影响,且人口年龄结构差异使得人口老龄化的影响存在区域异质性。总体来看,人口老龄化阻碍了产业结构高级化和制造业转型升级,但促进了产业结构合理化和服务业结构升级,且提高了财政支出效率。财政支出效率提升不仅弱化了人口老龄化对产业结构升级的负效应,还成为人口老龄化发挥正向影响的重要传导渠道。上述结论对于推动我国产业结构升级、实现经济高质量发展具有一定的理论和现实意义。

Based on the analysis of the internal mechanisms of population aging,efficiency of public expenditure and upgrading of industrial structure,this paper uses China's provincial panel data from 2001 to 2019 to empirically test the theoretical hypothesis with panel smooth transition model and dynamic spatial Durbin model.It finds that,the public expenditure efficiency and the industrial structure upgrading all present an significant path dependence in the time dimension,an obvious spatial spillover in the spatial dimension and an competitive lag in the time-spatial dimension.Population aging has an significant non-linear impact on the public expenditure efficiency and the industrial structure upgrading.Due to the population structure,the impact of population aging has regional heterogeneity.Overall,while population aging obstructs the industrial structure upgrading and manufacturing industry upgrading,it promotes the industrial structure rationalization and the service structure upgrading,improves the public expenditure efficiency.The promotion of the public expenditure efficiency weakens the negative effect of population aging to some extent,and it is an important transmission channel for the positive effect of population aging on the industrial structure upgrading.The above conclusions have certain theoretical and practical significance for promoting the industrial structure upgrading and high-quality economic development.