2000—2020年山西省人口迁移及影响因素时空演变

Population Migration and Its Influencing Factors in Shanxi Province from 2000 to 2020

利用第五、六、七次全国人口普查数据,观察分析山西省及地级市在2000—2020年的人口时空分布变化。以山西统计年鉴数据资料为基准,探讨人口迁移与影响因素之间的耦合关系。结果表明,山西省人口总量变化不大,城市人口数量仅太原市、晋中市保持连续正向增长,太原市人口发展迅速;太原市迁入人口构成以本省其他县区人口为主,各地级市对于本市县区人口有较强吸引力;人口迁移驱动因子与地区经济水平、教育资源、交通建设、住宅价格和人均收入有关;通过对空间格局、产业结构、教育分配、交通设施与落户门槛五方面综合规划,可有效提升山西省城市综合实力和对于外来人口的吸引力。研究结论有助于山西省各地级市合理展望和计划未来人口流动分布格局,促进山西省内各地级市人口迁移良好互动,为人口管理政策提供理论支撑与现实依据。

Using the data of the fifth,sixth and seventh national population censuses,the spatiotemporal distribution of population in Shanxi Province and prefecture-level cities from 2000to 2020 was observed and analyzed.Based on the data of Shanxi Statistical Yearbook,the coupling relationship between population migration and influencing factors was discussed.The results are as follows.The total population of Shanxi Province has not changed much,and the urban population has maintained continuous positive growth only in Taiyuan City and Jinzhong City,and the population of Taiyuan City has developed rapidly.The population composition of Taiyuan City is dominated by the population of other counties and districts in the province,and the prefecture-level cities have a strong attraction to the population of the counties and districts of the city.The driving factors of population migration are related to regional economic level,educational resources,transportation construction,housing prices and per capita income.Through the comprehensive planning of spatial pattern,industrial structure,education allocation,transportation facilities and settlement threshold,the comprehensive strength of Shanxi Province and the attractiveness of foreign population can be effectively improved.The conclusions of this study are helpful for the cities of Shanxi Province to reasonably prospect and plan the future distribution pattern of population flow,promote the good interaction of population migration in the cities of Shanxi Province,and provide theoretical support and practical basis for population management policies.