考虑韧性的两阶段应急物资供应链决策优化

Two-stage emergency material supply chain decision optimization considering resilience

为保障应急物资供应能力、降低供应链中断风险,使应急物资供应链在遭受自然灾害冲击时快速恢复到正常状态,将韧性概念引入应急物资供应链的决策中,在政企联合的基础上,采用多源采购和产能储备的组合韧性策略提升应急物资供应链的韧性。以供应链的总需求满足率最大化和总成本最小化为目标,构建一个均衡供应链韧性与成本的两阶段双目标混合整数优化模型,解决灾前政府的实物储备及灾后不同情境下应急物资的生产与分配问题;以洪涝灾害为背景,通过算例分析、对比分析和灵敏度分析验证了模型的有效性及可行性。结果表明:均衡韧性与成本的应急物资供应链模型的总需求满足率可达95.75%,比传统供应链模型提升15.30百分点,且总成本仅增加0.52%,比同等条件下仅以成本为导向的供应链的总需求满足率提升15.65百分点,且总成本仅增加3.70%;多源采购策略和产能储备策略二者同时采用比分别单独采用,能更大程度地保证应急物资供应链在平稳运行的基础上,既高效应对自然灾害又花费较低的成本。

To ensure the supply capacity of emergency materials,reduce the risk of supply chain disruption,and thus quickly recover to the normal state when suffering from natural disasters,this paper innovatively introduces the concept of resilience into the decision-making of emergency materials supply chain.Based on the combination of government and enterprise,this paper uses a multi-source procurement strategy and capacity reserve combination strategy to improve the resilience of the emergency materials supply chain.The paper divides the scenarios of natural disasters into common scenarios,more serious scenarios,and pessimistic scenarios,and the disaster degree and corresponding demand of the three scenarios increased in turn.On this basis,this paper designed a three-level supply chain network including supplier capacity reserve and multi-source procurement mechanism.Then,aiming at maximizing the total demand satisfaction rate and minimizing the total cost of the supply chain,this paper constructs a two-stage dual-objective mixed integer optimization model considering the supply chain resilience and uses the weighted sum method to transform it into a single objective optimization.Next,taking flood disaster as the background,this paper uses MATLAB to solve the model,and obtains the physical reserve plan of the government before the disaster and the production and distribution plan of emergency materials under different situations after the disaster.Finally,through comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis verified the validity and feasibility of the model.The results show that:the total demand satisfaction rate of the emergency material supply chain model with both resilience and cost reaches 95.75%,which grows 15.30 percentage point compared with the traditional supply chain network,and the total cost only increases by 0.52%.Compared with the cost-oriented supply chain network under the same conditions,the total demand satisfaction rate grows by 15.65 percentage point,and the total cost only increases by 3.70%.Simultaneously using a multi-source procurement strategy and capacity reserve strategy can ensure that the supply chain network of emergency materials can not only efficiently deal with natural disasters but also cost less based on smooth operation.The setting of weight parameters and the proportion of capacity reserve are the main factors affecting the total cost and total demand satisfaction rate of the emergency materials supply chain.The probability of different scenarios mainly affects the total demand satisfaction rate,while the impact of out-of-stock cost on the model results is not significant.