基于超效率DEA的地铁初近远期编组方案比选研究

Research on Comparison and Selection of Subway Formation Scheme in Initial,Near and Long Term Based on Super-efficiency DEA

编组方案是实现不同时期地铁运营模式与客流特征相匹配的基础,也是直接影响地铁规划建设成本和低碳运营的关键问题。在综合分析影响地铁编组方案关键要素的基础上,构建了地铁初近远期编组方案比选的综合评价指标体系,以及编组方案比选的两步筛选法;通过分析各指标对地铁编组方案影响的差异性,提出基于超效率DEA的地铁初近远期编组方案评价比选模型,并在对指标体系进行约简合并的基础上,从投入和产出两个角度对指标体系进行划分;最后,以实例验证和分析了地铁初近远期编组方案评价比选模型的可行性和合理性。算例分析结果表明:(1)固定编组方案属于成本赋能型方案,需较高的设备设施成本和运营投入;而更改编组方案属于技术赋能型方案,通过提高管理和技术水平,实现了运能匹配和乘客时间满意度等方面的有效产出;(2)更改编组方案和固定编组方案之间的优劣具有一定的动态性,需结合具体的线路条件、城市或企业财政情况、运营管理和技术水平等条件进行综合判断。本文提出的地铁初近远期编组方案比选理论方法适用于多种实践场景,具有一定的实用性,可为地铁初近远期编组方案比选的规范化提供一定的理论参考。

The marshalling scheme is the foundation to match the operation mode and passenger flow characteristics of metro in different periods,and it is also the key problem that directly affects the cost of metro planning and construction and low-carbon operation.Based on the comprehensive analysis of the key factors affecting the metro marshalling scheme,a comprehensive evaluation index system and a two-step screening method are established.Based on the analysis of the difference of the impact of each index on the metro marshalling plan,a new evaluation model of the metro marshalling plan in the early and near future based on super-efficiency DEA is proposed.Finally,the feasibility and rationality of the evaluation and comparison model of the early,near and long-term subway marshalling scheme are verified and analyzed by examples.The results show that:(1)The fixed marshalling plan is a cost-energized plan,which requires higher equipment cost and operation input,while the modified marshalling plan is a technology-energized plan;by improving the management and technical level,the effective output of capacity matching and passenger time satisfaction can be achieved.(2)The advantages and disadvantages of modified marshalling scheme and fixed marshalling scheme are dynamic to a certain extent,comprehensive judgment should be made according to the specific conditions of the line,the financial situation of the city or enterprise,the operation management and the technical level.The theoretical method of comparison and selection of early,near and long-term metro marshalling schemes presented in this paper is applicable to many practical scenarios and has certain practicability,which can provide certain theoretical reference for the standardization of comparison and selection of early,near and long-term metro marshalling schemes.