陆上风电碳足迹动态变化的国际比较研究

International Comparative Study on Dynamic Change of Onshore Wind Power Carbon Footprint

碳中和目标下国际风电产业将继续扩大规模,碳市场、碳关税等国际气候减排政策工具也在不断完善,未来可再生能源碳足迹对相关产业成本与发展将产生重要影响。本文以中国、欧洲、美国等风电产业优势国家和地区作为研究对象,构建陆上风电系统生命周期评价过程、生命周期清单,完成相关地区陆上风电碳足迹的参数比较并总结变化趋势,进一步分析趋势成因并阐明影响因素。结果表明,在风力机大型化加速、发电效率提高、工业生产清洁化的态势下,2011—2022年世界优势地区的陆上风电碳足迹均呈下降趋势,中国、欧洲、美国的平均降幅分别为49.2%、46.2%、20.8%,相应下降量均集中在设备生产阶段;中国已将碳足迹下降至与欧洲接近的水平,与美国的差距缩减到3.63 g/kW·h,其中工业生产清洁化水平不高、风机容量因子偏低分别是中国陆上风电碳足迹高于欧洲、美国的主要原因。中国在推进风电产业发展的过程中,需着重提高风电系统发电效率、加快改善产业清洁化生产水平、支持风电系统退役回收产业发展,以稳步降低陆上风电系统生命周期内的碳足迹。

The global wind energy industry is expected to expand in the context of carbon neutralization.Meanwhile,with the continuous improvement in carbon reduction tools such as carbon market and carbon tariffs,the carbon footprint of renewable energy may impact the cost and development of wind power in the future.Taking China,Europe,and the United States as the research object,this study constructs the lifecycle evaluation process and list of onshore wind power systems,conducts parameter comparison regarding the carbon footprint of onshore wind power in relevant regions,and summarizes the change trends.Moreover,it analyzes the cause of the trend and clarifies the influencing factors.The results indicate that the carbon footprint of onshore wind power shows a downward trend in the aforementioned regions from 2011 to 2022 owing to the large-scale wind turbines,improved generation efficiency,and cleanliness of industrial production.Specifically,the average decrease in China,Europe,and the United States was 49.2%,46.2%,and 20.8%,respectively,and the decrease was concentrated in the equipment production stage.China has reduced its carbon footprint to a level close to Europe,and its gap with the United States has been reduced to 3.63 g/kW·h.However,China still lags behind Europe and the United States in terms of industrial production cleanliness and fan capacity factor,respectively.In the process of promoting industrial development,China should further promote the power generation efficiency of its wind power system,improve the cleanliness of industrial production,and support the recycling of decommissioned wind power systems,so as to steadily reduce the carbon footprints within the lifecycle of onshore wind power systems.