环境承载力中介下森林转型赋能区域生态宜居——作用路径与效应识别

Forest Transformation Enabling Regional Ecological Livability under the Medium of Environmental Carrying Capacity-Path and Identification of Effect

基于中国1999—2018年4次森林资源清查结果及相关统计数据,对中国31个省域(不含港澳台地区)的森林转型指数、环境承载力和生态宜居水平进行测评,然后借助中介效应模型探索森林转型赋能区域生态宜居的作用路径,并测度环境承载力对森林转型赋能区域生态宜居水平的中介效应。结果显示:1999—2018年中国森林转型指数整体呈现稳中有升的发展态势,但不同地区之间水平差异比较明显,西南、东北地区森林转型效果最为显著;中国环境承载力的“U型”曲线演变特征明显,其中西南、华南、华东地区环境承载力较强,华东、华中、华南、华北地区环境承载力在回升阶段表现突出,东北、西南和西北地区在经济快速发展时期,环境承载力呈现下降趋势,突显出资源环境系统脆弱性;中国生态宜居水平总体呈现波动上升态势,其中西南、华北、华东地区上升态势最为明显;环境承载力在森林转型对区域生态宜居水平影响中具有中介作用,森林转型通过提升环境承载力部分解释了其对区域生态宜居水平的促进作用。

⑴Background——The regional ecological livability in China is facing severe challenges.Forest resources play an important role in improving urban ecological livability.Although the existing studies have been concerned that forest resources can improve the level of ecological livability by promoting the green development of regional economy and improving the quality of regional ecological environment,there are few relevant quantitative studies,especially the logical relationship and effect path between forest transformation,environmental carrying capacity and ecological livability level have not been deeply discussed.⑵Methods——This paper firstly evaluated the forest transformation index,environmental carrying capacity and ecological livability level of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China by using the results of forest resources inventory and relevant statistical data from 1999 to 2018.Then,the mediating effect model was used to further explore the effect path of forest transformation enabling regional ecological livability,identify the mediating variable of environmental carrying capacity,and measure its mediating effect on the level of forest transformation enabling regional ecological livability.⑶Results——First,during 1999—2018,China’s forest transformation index showed a stable and rising development trend on the whole,but the level difference among different regions was obvious,and the forest transformation effect was the most significant in southwest and northeast China.Second,the evolution characteristics of U-shaped curve of China’s environmental carrying capacity were very obvious,and the environmental carrying capacity in southwest China,south China and east China was stronger.The environmental carrying capacity of east China,central China,south China and north China was prominent in the recovery stage.During the period of rapid economic development,the environmental carrying capacity of northeast China,southwest China and northwest China showed a decreasing trend,with an average growth rate of-1.01%,-2.4%and-1.24%,respectively.Third,the level of ecological livability in China showed a trend of fluctuation and increase on the whole,especially in southwest China,north China and east China.Fourth,the results of the mediating effect verified the mediating role of environmental carrying capacity in the impact of forest transformation on regional ecological livability level,and its mediating effect accounted for 22.51%of the total effect.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——Based on the above research conclusions,the following policy suggestions are put forward:First,continue to promote deeper forest transformation actions with national land greening as the core.The government needs to increase policy support and investment for forest transformation in ecologically fragile areas,coordinate urban and rural forest ecological construction.Second,give full play to the mediating role of environmental carrying capacity between forest transformation and regional ecological livability,and establish a scientific assessment system of environmental capacity.Accelerate the development and use of disruptive technologies in the field of environmental monitoring,establish an early warning mechanism of environmental carrying capacity to realize rapid early warning and timely response to the overload of environmental carrying capacity,and promote the modernization of the ecological environment protection system.Third,establish and improve the evaluation system and rights protection mechanism for ecological livability.Establish a decision-making and management mechanism led by grassroots governments with the participation of community representatives and a dedicated line for suggestions and complaints on ecological livability to provide legal protection for an ecological livable environment.