国家组织药品集采对医药上市公司股价的影响

The Impact of the National Centralized Drug Procurement on the Stock Prices of Pharmaceutical Listed Companies

目的:探究国家组织药品集采对医药上市公司股价的影响。方法:运用事件研究法,以九批药品集采政策为研究对象,从中选企业和医药行业两个角度,分别探究药品集采政策对股价的影响效果。结果:研究发现,各批药品集采事件发生后,中选企业股票和医药行业指数股均产生了显著的异常收益率;就股价而言,短期内,政策对中选企业产生一定的消极影响而对医药行业总体将产生积极影响。但本研究并未与未中选的、不参与集采的品种进行对比,也未与资本市场其他行业股价变化进行对比分析。结论:研究认为,中选企业股价与医药行业指数的反向变动引致了一定的套利空间,或是长期价值投资者的建仓良机。建议政府部门坚持药品集采制度常态化,医药上市公司加强质量管理与成本控制,证券市场投资者培养理性的价值投资观念。

Objective:The paper attempts to study the impact of national centralized drug procurement on the stock prices of pharmaceutical listed companies.Methods:Using the event study method,nine batches of centralized drug procurement policies were taken as the research objects,and the impact of centralized drug procurement policies on stock prices was explored from the perspectives of selected enterprises and pharmaceutical industry.Results:The results showed that after the occurrence of each batch of centralized drug procurement,the stocks of the selected enterprises and pharmaceutical industry index produced significant abnormal returns.In terms of stock price,the policies had a negative impact on the selected companies to some extent and an overall positive impact on the pharmaceutical industry in the short term.However,this study did not compare selected drugs with the drugs that were not selected and did not participate in the centralized drug procurement.There is also no comparative analysis of stock price changes with other industries in the capital market.Conclusion:The study believes that the stock prices of the selected companies and the inverse movement of the pharmaceutical industry index lead to some arbitrage space,which is a good opportunity for long-term value investors to build positions.It is suggested that government departments should adhere to the normalization of the centralized drug procurement system,strengthen quality management and cost control of pharmaceutical listed companies,and cultivate a rational value investment concept among investors in the securities market.