昌吉州平原区土地利用时空变化及驱动因素分析

Analysis of spatial and temporal changes and driving factors of land use in Changji Prefecture Plain

为保障昌吉州生态环境安全与可持续发展,基于2005~2020年4期土地利用遥感数据,运用土地利用动态度、转移矩阵、标准差椭圆及主成分分析等方法,对昌吉州平原区近15 a土地利用时空变化特征及驱动因素进行了分析。结果表明:耕地和草地是研究区主要土地利用类型,分别占研究区面积的40.27%~52.03%和32.77%~37.0%;2005~2020年研究区耕地和建设用地呈增加趋势,林地、草地、水域和未利用地呈减少趋势;2005~2010年土地利用类型相互转化最为剧烈,综合土地利用动态度达到最大,为1.85%;2005~2020年土地利用转移方向主要表现为草地、未利用地转变为耕地以及未利用地转变为草地;耕地重心发生明显变化,西段耕地重心呈现东北向西南方向迁移,东段耕地重心呈现东南向西北方向迁移,其中,2005~2010年耕地重心迁移距离最大;研究区土地利用变化的主要驱动因素是社会经济因素,自然因素对其影响相对不大。

To guarantee the ecological environment security and sustainable development of Changji Prefecture,based on the 4-period land use remote sensing data from 2005 to 2020,the spatial and temporal change characteristics and driving factors of land use in the plain area of Changji Prefecture in the past 15 years were analyzed by using the land use dynamic attitude,transfer matrix,standard deviation ellipse,and principal component analysis.The results showed that:arable land and grassland were the main land use types in the study area,accounting for 40.27%~52.03%and 32.77%~37.00%of the study area respectively;arable land and construction land in the study area showed an increasing trend from 2005 to 2020,and forest land,grassland,waters and unutilized land showed a decreasing trend;the mutual transformation among land use types from 2005 to 2010 hit the strongest level with a maximum motivation degree of 1.85%;from 2005 to 2020,the direction of land use transfer was mainly manifested in the transformation of grassland,unused land into cropland and unused land into grassland;the center of gravity of cropland changed significantly.The concentrated area of cultivated land in the western section showed migration from northeast to southwest,and the concentrated area of cultivated land in the eastern section showed migration from southeast to northwest,during which the concentrated area of cultivated land in 2005~2010 had the largest migration distance;the main driving factors of land use change in the study area were socio-economic factors,and the influence of natural factors on it was relatively insignificant.