基于熵权TOPSIS模型的古建筑地震灾害风险评估

Earthquake hazard assessment of ancient buildings based on entropy weight TOPSIS model

为评估地震灾害对古建筑的危害并提供抗震性能改进的方法,以四川省的国家级文物保护单位的古建筑为研究对象,构建了一个多维度的地震灾害风险评估框架,包括地震强度、地质条件和建筑物属性三个关键方面。采用熵值法赋予指标权重,并建立了优劣解距离法(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)模型,计算了四川省域内国家级文物保护单位的古建筑的地震风险等级。此外,通过对2012年以来四川省的1000多次地震事件建立深度学习模型(long short-term memory,LSTM),模拟出未来100次地震的震级变化趋势。最后比较3种提升古建筑的抗震性能方法的优劣,包括结构加固、加强管理以及迁移地震易发区的古建筑等。研究结果表明,四川省的古建筑地震风险等级表现出西部高风险向东部低风险递减的区域差异,多集中于较低、中等、较高3个等级。LSTM模型模拟出未来100次地震震级最大为4.21级,迁移大中型滑坡、地震频繁发生场址范围内的古建筑是降低古建筑地震风险的最优方案。

To assess the impact of seismic hazards on ancient buildings and provide methods for improvement,this study focuses on the ancient buildings of national cultural heritage sites in Sichuan Province.A multidimensional framework for earthquake hazard risk assessment has been developed,which includes three key aspects:seismic intensity,geological conditions,and building attributes.The entropy method was employed to assign weights to indicators,and a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)model was established to calculate the seismic risk levels of ancient buildings within national cultural heritage sites in Sichuan Province.Additionally,long short-term memory(LSTM)deep learning models were emplored,using data from more than a thousand seismic events that occurred in Sichuan Province since 2012.These models were used to project the magnitude trends for the upcoming one hundred earthquakes.Finally,we performed a assessment to compare the pros and cons of three strategies aimed at enhancing the seismic resilience of historic buildings.These strategies included strengthening the structural integrity,implementing better management practices,and relocating historical structures away from earthquake-prone areas.The results of the study demonstrate varying levels of seismic risk for ancient buildings in Sichuan Province.These levels exhibit a descending pattern,ranging from high risk in the western regions to low risk in the eastern areas,and the levels are primarily concentrated across three categories:low,moderate,and high.The LSTM model simulates that the maximum magnitude of earthquakes in the next one hundred events is M s4.21.The most effective approach for minimizing seismic risk to historical structures is to move them away from regions susceptible to significant landslides and frequent seismic events.