泉州湾湿地碳库生态安全评价及其障碍因素研究

Ecological security evaluation and obstacle factors of Quanzhou Bay Wetland carbon pool

【目的】根据湿地“碳库”特征,构建湿地碳库生态安全综合评价体系。以长时间尺度观测数据为基础,评价滨海湿地生态环境质量,为相关部门管理湿地碳库提供依据。【方法】以泉州湾河口湿地自然保护区为评价对象,采用DPSIR模型,筛选出包括二氧化碳排放、碳储量在内的32个指标;结合专家法、熵权法等构建泉州湾湿地碳库的生态环境质量评价指标体系;运用遥感技术、统计学方法,基于遥感影像、野外实测数据及政府公开数据评价湿地生态安全状况,并借助障碍度模型识别出影响生态安全水平提升的主要因素。【结果】2012-2021年泉州湾湿地碳储量总体呈逐年上升趋势,其中,2012年碳储量最低,为168221×10^(6)t,2020年碳储量最高,为654463×10^(6)t。生态始终处于较安全状态,生态安全最低值出现在2012年,为0.399,最高值出现在2021年,为0.451;驱动力指标、影响指标、压力指标、响应指标数值均呈逐年上升趋势,状态指标数值以2015年为分界点,先增加后减少。【结论】利用与保护之间的长期博弈及湿地本身的脆弱性可能是导致泉州湾湿地碳储量和生态安全情况波动的主要原因。人均耕地面积、地表水资源量、单位GDP电耗、工业废水排放量、第一产业产值是近年泉州湾湿地生态安全水平提升的主要制约因素。

【Objective】Based on the characteristics of wetland carbon pool,a comprehensive evaluation system for the ecological security status of wetland carbon pool was constructed.And the ecological environment quality of coastal wetland was evaluated based on long-term scale observation data,thus providing reliable reference for relevant departments to manage coastal wetland.【Method】With the aid of DPSIR model,32 indexes including CO_(2) emission and carbon storage were screened out to construct an evaluation index system for the ecological environment quality of Quanzhou Bay Wetland carbon pool by expert method and entropy weight method.Based on remote sensing images,field data and government public data,the ecological security of wetlands was evaluated by statistical methods,and its main influence factors were identified using obstacle degree model.【Result】During 2012-2021,the carbon storage of Quanzhou Bay Wetland showed an overall upward trend year by year,with a minimum in 2012(168221×10^(6)t)and maximum in 2020(654463×10^(6)t).Its ecological security status has been in a relatively safe state,with the lowest ecological security value of 0.399 in 2012 and the highest value of 0.451 in 2021.The driving force index,impact index,pressure index and response index all went up year by year,while the state index increased first and then decreased with the year of 2015 as the demarcation point.【Conclusion】The long-term game between utilization and protection and the vulnerability of wetland itself are likely to be the main reasons for the fluctuation of carbon storage and ecological security of Quanzhou Bay Wetland.And per capita arable land area,surface water resources,power consumption per unit of GDP,industrial wastewater discharge,output value of the primary industry are the dominant factors restricting the improvement of its ecological security in recent years.